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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter grossman who wrote (14139)	2/5/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: Alan Aronoff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

<<Fresh fish swim upstream faster when the sun shines -- no bull?>> They certainly do Peter. They also swim fast when being chased by bigger fish looking for a good meal or at least a little nibble. I'd be quite happy to hang out in the belly of a whale for a while.<g> Unfortunately, fish don't speak. They only smell and only after they've been dead for a while. With this in my mind I am pouring over nautical charts to determine which way the currents are flowing. I foresee two scenarios, one of which will occur by the end of next week. Since the Sequent unpleasantness, ANCR has consolidated below its 200 day MA twice. The first time was in mid July when ANCR attacked the average from below for 7 days before breaking through on the eighth try. Two days later ANCR was trading at its post-Sequent high. The second time was in mid October when ANCR fell below the average in the two weeks leading up to the Q3 earnings report. During those two weeks ANCR tried to rally back above the average but did not succeed ultimately leading to the gap down on the earnings release. In the first instance the not-made-public-yet fundamentals driving the action were the Bull OEM announcement, new CEO announcement,new orders from Hucom, Boeing order. I recall a Kinnard upgrade around that time too. (Kinnard's sense of smell was working well). In the second instance the not-made-public-yet fundamentals driving the action were the earnings report, outlook for Q4, lack of new OEM developments, need for more financing. I believe the chart will tell us once again before the fundamentals reveal themselves. If ANCR cannot climb and stay over the 200 day MA within the next few trading sessions (say by the end of next week at the latest) I will have become short term bearish. On the other hand, if ANCR can close clearly above the average (say at $8) I will be very bullish and will be leaning on my margin heavily.<g> uscharts.com