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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (39319)	10/11/2021 11:23:02 AM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 97560

That's a great analysis, Jacob! Something I will keep.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (39319)	10/11/2021 11:33:25 AM
From: sunabeach	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97560

BH Oil Rig weekly count is at the highest level in a year and a half - rising week after week after week. BH Gas Rig count has stabilized around 100 level which even still is actually close to a year and half high.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (39319)	10/11/2021 11:51:33 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 Sun Tzu Respond to of 97560

Aluminum futures break above $3,050 per tonne for the first time since July 2008 as supply disruptions intensified on soaring energy costs. Smelters in China's Qinghai province were told to reduce production to lower the power load, while in Europe aluminum producers are also facing risks. Rising energy prices decrease production profitability causing aluminum smelters to curtail production. Dutch producer Alde announced it will cut output by 60-70% at its Delfzijl aluminum smelter due to high electricity prices. Meanwhile, the European Union imposed an anti-dumping duty on flat-roller aluminum from China excluding some key materials such as metal used by drinks cans, cars and aircraft industrials. tradingeconomics.com Electricity is 40% of the cost of turning alumina into aluminum.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (39319)	10/11/2021 12:23:13 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97560

Given the recent ST runs decent chance E&Ps are flat to down after earnings, but depends upon guidance and capital return plans to a degree as well. I took approx 10% off the table today in energy, but it grew to a very large % of the portfolio. Many of these still cheap IT and agree oil could keep grinding higher so trying to let winners run as well. Just think ST we're in a zone where we're likely to see some chop at a min. GS downgraded COP today which I think is still cheap IT. GS also thinks oil is still going higher so at least ST they are saying that most of the good news is priced in. I think energy is still under owned overall and it's a great way to hedge inflation so your plan is probably prudent.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (39319)	10/12/2021 1:19:27 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97560

RIG: st support $3.7, longer-term support around $3.1. With oil at $80, and maybe going to $110, sooner or later E&Ps will overcome ESG scruples and increase offshore capex. When that happens, RIG will not be a single-digit stock. So, if I buy at $3.7, there is maybe 25% potential downside, and 300% or more potential upside. Good risk/reward ratio. Basically, I am a lot more bullish on RIG because oil broke decisively above $75. schrts.co