There, I suspect, is a <<Dark Side of China>>
See if we might connect the dots to make sense of some recent happenings, and dispense with the MSM and kibitztoriates's random babbles re China. As far as Team China is concerned, being transparent about indubitable actions and seeming counter-actions is one thing, the world's misinterpretations can be left alone because engaging in conversation is a waste of time and effort, and might be detrimental to needed progress.
(1) Some recently happenings, and interpretations:
(1-a) "Xi Jinping consolidates power" is cr@p. Core Comrade Jinping is exercising his already consolidated power.
(1-b) "Xi Jinping is Mao / Stalin reborn" is rubbish. Xi is trying to do common-prosperity for the electorates, including electorates not yet born. This is not the post to discuss what Mao did or tried to do. We can leave that to the historians. I am not familiar with Stalin except what MSM says about him so am not qualified to offer opinion.
(1-c) "Isolate China / ring-fence China / ignore China because Xi Jinping, CCP, and China bad bad bad" is I am unsure what, as China cannot be isolated, ring-fenced, and can only be ignored as one might a spouse. Good luck to those who try.
(1-d) "China ought to do ... and not do ..." is hilarious, when precious few nation-states are qualified to offer an opinion never mind would be listened to by the only electorate grouping that matters to China, the Chinese.
(1-e) So, what might be going on? Let me connect three dots to get set go, and name me any civilisation-state which would not do something about something, and these events happened in the last quarter century, after 10 earlier quarter-centuries of just-the-same. So, obviously, the issue is not China's governance system, leader, or the CCP. The 'problem' is the Chinese.
Circa 1995 - 7th Fleet sails through Taiwan Strait, 1995 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis - Wikipediahttps://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Third_Taiwan_Strait_...
Circa 1999 - China embassy gets precision targeted in the middle of the night United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgradehttps://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › United_States_bombin...
Circa 2020 - Trade / Technology Wars declared against China by like-minded
(1-f) Imagine if the Chinese Trade Minister said same about America, that China must impede American tech progress, what would be the reaction?
What if Team China trade minister notes "If we really want to slow down USA's rate of innovation, we need to work with the Russians, Europeans, and whomever, because we do not want theocratic cretinocracy who cannot even manage own affairs and elections and governance but start and leave wars all over the place writing the rules"
scmp.com
In the interview, Raimondo said: “If we really want to slow down China’s rate of innovation, we need to work with Europe.” She added that the US did not like “autocratic governments like China” writing the rules. So, is the USA that small a country? Has it sunk so far down?
People think that the Afghanistan episode was detrimental to America. I doubt such. The detrimental happening in other domains and far more consequential.
(1-g) China, as per above threading of dots, is at war. War is all about logistics. This war's logistics is interesting. China is vulnerable on semiconductors, energy flow by sea, and by use of USD. So, to emphasise:
Semiconductors
Oil & gas
Dollar
(1-h) Xi cracks down on China Big Tech by exercise of already consolidated power, after having been ignored for a few years w/r to needed redirection of China big tech, to refocus from TikTok-ing and computer gaming and and and time-wasters to lasers, quantum, AI, semiconductors, cislunar- and deep space, Moon and Mars, ...
Big Tech does not listen and did not get the message?
Ant / Alibaba / Jack Ma
Tencent
Baidu
etc etc receives new message, and responds appropriately, seeking atonement and gets busy after saying, "Yes Sir"
Does the "Manhattan Project" ring a bell?
(1-i) Hong Kong? Take over by Beijing?
In the capital war, Hong Kong is drafted for national service, and RMB shall stay strong irrespective of what happens to the equity markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
RMB bond market is up, for the year, as opposed to down. Capital flowing in, and not out. Real and nominal rates are both positive, that which people like. This is not your average emerging market.
Chinese companies delisted / driven out from NYEX? Greater, and a big thank you to Capitol Hill, Administration and SEC, and would be better if the US courts get out of the way so that the forced march is not slowed down.
Hong Kong is, once again as had numerous times, taking in the refugees.
(1-j) China goes peak-carbon, to the extent of suffering brownouts and slowed industrial production, causing all manner of seeming chaos, just as did tech crackdown, education profit takedown, etc etc
Why? For environmental this and that?
Or to bum-rush by exercise of consolidated power to force-migrate from carbon to every other kinds of energy.
BTW, good news for the environmentalists everywhere, that China solar power cost per kWh shall match and go under China coal power in 2023, and the forced-migration shall only accelerate.
Coincidentally, solar PV polysilicon in the world is mostly produced in China, and in China, mostly produced in Xinjiang, where a lot of bitcoins production was happening, and per imperative of national service, the energy must be redirected, for the greater good. As and when and if China requires to wrestle back bitcoin production after full adoption everywhere else if such should happen, the production shall be solar power and nuclear backstopped.
Peak-carbon obsoletes the Malaca Strait, just as Russia-China pipelines already operating, and Iran-Afghanistan-China gas / oil pipelines might happen now that Team USA mysteriously gave up that strategic high ground along with all those liberal goodies.
A weaker leader who needed to 'consolidate' power cannot possibly do what Xi has done - do the words 'cold turkey' mean anything?
Stopping coal import from Australia is just part of pushback against like-minded cretins who do not realise that times are changing and old season passing.
All just a part of giving the boat a shove down a convenient river current.
(1-k) Consequences? There is not enough copper!
Even as other domains doubling down on ... drum roll ... coal :0)
Expensive mistakes by cretins are understandable but cannot be stopped.
(1-l) Disruptions to value-chain / supply chain of down stream goodies?
China shall have enough for China and allies.
Everybody else can go enjoy 'transient' inflation in the service of like-minded.
Expensive nuclear power for the UK. Dear 5G for Canada. To be crippled LNG industry for Australia. Back to pastoral existence for New Zealand.
Being like-mind has a cost.
(1-m) China is in process to cease provision excess capacity, where small is beautiful. Good news be less growth everywhere, a lot less deflation of pricing, a lot more of sustained 'transient' inflation, a lot less carbon energy use, much better environmental / climate trajectories.
(1-n) 1.4 billion people going their scientific way by actions of science and technology, education, urbanisation upgrade (coincidentally formerly 'ghost' cities are already in place as if per plan Message 33496454 , and better quality civilisation evolution
(1-o) China's role as source of cheap labour is over. As an example, China graduates far more STEM students than all domains, and yet STEM PhD and MS degree holders in China get paid more than STEM folks in Europe.
It is a good thing that China STEM energy is deploying along the ancient Silk Road, all the way to the tip of Africa.
(1-p) Taiwan? A lot of hog wash in MSM. 25% of adult Taiwan passport holders live on the mainland.
China invading Taiwan? for what? to stop Taiwan from training more culturally in-tune engineers and live on the mainland?
Recruiting Taiwan Chinese engineers is much cheaper than starting a war.
Complain about Team USA witch-hunting ethnic Chinese STEM folks? Why bother?
(1-q) Evergrande? China's Lehman moment? What a lot of balderdash.
USA had to try to save Lehman, and failed, then tried QE to fill a bottomless financial pit.
Team China is trying to shutdown Evergrande and all its ilk, in an orderly fashion, to redirect resources to now-better use, for common-prosperity and the great-good.
Pay the suppliers and the municipal authorities to complete the real estate for the buyers who bought. The proto-demonstration groups have all been given the nod, that they shall be taken care of, and have all happily gone home.
The bondholders? They can sell their bond certificates at deep discount or just hold, hold longer, then hold some more. Profit shall not be their future.
The stockholders? go pond sand.
The instigators and executives? STFU or go to jail.
How wonderful would it be had the Lehman cabal gotten the same rendition?
Xi Jinping wants to shut down real estate development, and is exercising consolidated power.
What is the point of power if one does not use it to do common-prosperity for the greater-good, a/k/a Make China Great Again. Does not have a snazzy acronym as MAGA.
The quality of China growth is under procedure to improve, telegraphed so very long ago
OECD saw it coming long ago but did not bother to think through what it all means oecd.org
China needs further reforms to make growth sustainable, greener and more inclusive
(1-r) China is actually practicing capitalism as it should be practiced, protect the little fellows / fellowettes, and the capitalists take their lumps as they should.
America is not practising capitalism.
(1-s) Cotton price going parabolic? Cotton Prices - 45 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrendshttps://www.macrotrends.net › cotton-prices-historical-c...
xinjiang cotton - everything is fine, except for the like-minded for China is a huge producer of cotton and have plenty for China
(1-t) Back to above (1-g)
<<(1-g) China, as per above threading of dots, is at war. War is all about logistics. This war's logistics is interesting. China is vulnerable on semiconductors, energy flow by sea, and by use of USD. So, to emphasise:
Semiconductors
Oil & gas
Dollar>>
The semiconductor issue shall be resolved on this side of 2026.
Oil & gas problem shall be resolved on the other side of 2026.
Dollar?
Depends on how capitalism is practiced in China and ex-China.
2026 / 2032. We watch & brief.
BTW, all of the above except the flowers and capstones are attributable to Louis Gavkal research.gavekal.com .
I paraphrase, interpret, interpolate, and channel.
I just happen to agree with it all, without exception. Louis has a large team paid for by clients to delve into such. The stuff I noted on this thread over the eons are sythensized from all that I read, and think about, but yes, I do depend on other's work.
I believe such anchoring helps one to read the stuff put out by the Economist, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, WaPo, CNN, Fox, ... and ZeroHedge.
I read a lot, and talk to folks better thinking than I. Else what would be the point of reading?
(1-u) Recommendation? mine, stack gold and aggregate crypto, and
Louis'? buy China bond. buy USA equity. |
