Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (179353)	10/21/2021 7:45:53 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217557

Looks to me like miners, generically, bottomed in August, and have been mostly flat since, into the end of September... while gold and silver miners only bottomed "sort of" definitively at the end of September... And, since Sept 29 the miners have been rising... but for the most part, only slowly... and most have not yet broken out above the descending MA's capping them... There are obvious exceptions... the list of "better" picks clearly outperforming "the average"... SA and FNLPF are back near where they were after the initial drop in mid June... BTG bouncing back well recently... But, nothing much that is too crazy on the bullish side is happening in miners, still... leaving lots of time for sorting out (or, waiting for) those few that are continuing to improve their position significantly, over time... while the market mostly continues ignoring that they are. And, while the market continues for now to pretend that declining gold and silver prices could make a lick of sense as oil hits new highs, and inflation is clearly seen accelerating into the middle double digits... The best picks are still going to be those few producers in "stable" jurisdictions (now no longer including Mexico) who are still profitable now... and the few explorers that are able to continue growing resources in new discoveries faster than the market is able to discount the value of the metal discovered... which limits the universe of potentials to those who've raised significant enough money recently to enable sustaining support of robust exploration efforts carried on over the next year or two... or, those juniors tied in with larger partners and carried interests... Copper fundamentals continue to improve... as the market appears to be quite significantly off in its current expectations of potential future deliveries of metal given the lack of exploration and development investment over the last few years... with the additions already slated for production not coming close to replacing the losses in the current sources of supply that are set up to be exhausted over the next few years... The "huge upside" some see in the "green revolution" and EV's doubling or tripling demand for the conductive metals like copper and silver... increasingly looks more like a "can't get there from here" issue... as reality comes home to roost in energy markets... with "green" imperatives now driving sharp increases in coal usage. But, reality continues to be that even without that growth on the demand side... and even with significant contraction occurring on the demand side... there's simply not enough metal in the pipeline to be able to sustain the economy... much less enable growth. A boom in uranium is ongoing... looks set to continue... as it is now the suddenly emergent "solution" to the problem of wind and solar getting not remotely close in living up to "green" expectations... Oil and gas have been on a tear... predictably outpacing gold and silver as an inflation hedge as it finally starts to sink in to many in the markets that the inflation story they've been told is... ah... wishful thinking, at best... None of those issues are remotely close to resolvable in a time scale that is measured in months... so, the only choices that exists, now, are ones between tolerating higher valuation of commodities enabling (mining investment and) robust economic growth with an even more robust price inflation, or a sustained effort in suppression of commodity prices that pairs price inflation in relative terms with an acceleration into a deflationary depression... that shrinks future growth potential faster over time if it is allowed to begin. The ongoing failures of central planning... ensures the middle ground in policy options delivers "stagflation" pairing accelerating inflation with a depressed level of economic activity... which seems almost the inevitable outcome at this point... only with the competing drivers increasingly likely to force it into becoming a "crack up boom"... Long real assets... isn't a guarantee of protection from declining asset prices in real terms, or a protection from the erosion of value by inflation as the pile of new money being printed grows faster than anything else. But, it offers more of a protection in owning something real than does ownership in things that are far more hypothetical than real... Clocks continue ticking... "parts" continue drifting apart... the post Delta Covid recovery story is back on the table... but the seating at the table is now far more limited, and will continue becoming more so over time as the drift continues without the underlying issues being resolved... and, now, the participants enthusiasm for the future already seems it is considerably less than it was previously... as confidence erodes... The current crop of global "leaders" are clearly failing... not even able to sustain the basic functions in what others before them, their betters, had already built... "build back better" clearly being far too elusive a goal for those who are proving... incapable... unable even to keep the lights on, or store shelves fully stocked. Meanwhile, the fiction that inflation is "muted"... is now being exposed... Meat prices have doubled recently... while we are told they have inflated at a 7% annual rate ? Events should prove 2021-2022 to be an interesting winter... as cans continue being kicked... until they can be kicked no more ?