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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40031)	10/18/2021 12:22:59 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 96690

I am familiar with that chart. But there are two nuances that need to be considered: (1) While general commodities, as represented for example by GNX can have long periods of upswing, individual commodities within it are unlikely to outperform the stock market for long periods. Have a look at very long term charts of Oil, Copper, Silver, Wheat, etc. You will have a hard time finding a 5 year period in which any commodity outperformed the stock market. (2) The so called "super commodity" cycle is tied to the Chinese infrastructure investment. China is having too many problems, so that is weak nail to hang your hat on. On the plus side, there are infrastructure investment plans in the rest of the world that may counter the drop from China. So we might actually experience a prolonged period of commodity goldilocks - which is rare, but might happen if China and the West take turns on infrastructure spending.