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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (14322)	2/5/1998 10:25:00 PM
From: Scusami	Respond to of 32384

Henry: So, they're one year ahead of schedule on the profit side of the equation! I liked the financials in the latest press release as well. They have a very strong current position (current assets to current liabilities ratio) of 3.8. That's very good! Since they spent $8M last year on interest payments, spending only $6M more this year would clear that debt completely allowing more $$ to flow down to the bottom line. I expect them to do something like that to demonstrate their desire to attain profitability sooner than later. I looked at the charts in some detail tonight. I noticed that there has been a 34 week cycle between peaks. We're now 16 weeks since the last peak. Both my daily and weekly charts look to me like ideal buying opportunities at this price. I expect to see the price start upward within days. My reco to all at this time is to buy more LGND, now (based on my interpretation of the technicals). Scusami

To: Henry Niman who wrote (14322)	2/6/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: Glass House	Respond to of 32384

WOW, pretty aggressive view of the stock after 2003! That's a long way off but interesting that they think what's in development will have such a broad base use. Henry, thanks for taking time to big this out.

To: Henry Niman who wrote (14322)	6/17/1998 11:27:00 AM
From: Andreas Helke	Respond to of 32384

I did dig out the RS 10 year projections (made on 11/26/96) and as I suspected, the RS estimates made in 1996 are similar to the Bear Stearns' numbers of Dec 31, 1997 (made for 2003). A mix of RS BS and other estimates gives the following figures Year EPS Todays fair price with PE=25 and 30% discount/year 1999 $0.07 $1.3 2000 $0.48 $7.1 2001 $0.63 $7.2 2002 $1.3 $11.4 2003 $1.76 $11.9 2004 $5.00 $25.9 2005 $10.65 $42.4 2006 $14.55 $44.6 If I take my favorite factors - PE 25 and 30% yearly discount Ligand today should be worth up to $44.6 today for its 2006 earnings. The average from the 2000 to 2006 discounted prices is $21.5/share If those further out estimates are halfway correct then Ligand is very cheap today. But maybe it is a good idea to park some of the money in BCHE and GENZ for the next 2 or 3 years where Ligands earnings are not impressive and then go back to Ligand if its future still looks as bright as it looked 1996. Andreas