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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark20 who wrote (14235)	2/6/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: Matt Webster	Respond to of 25960

Mark, I think you are right to look for a pull back, but the 15 puts are a big gamble. I hope they are not February expiration. I think it is unlikely to get the Feb 15 puts in the money. Unfortunately, I have some. The only way to make money is to buy a lot of them (they're like 1/4, right?) and sell them on any significant percent move. If you are holding March or July 15 puts, you're okay. The thing with the February calls is that you must buy them assuming Cymer gets pinned to 20. I would buy 15 calls, two expirations beyond February, if possible. FWIW, I don't think this is a short squeeze, just speculative buying. Shorts will not be squeezed out until we see 25-30+. Even at 20, they have made significant money and will not feel pain. They may slowly cover, but they will not feel pain. The stock must rally off of 25 before shorts will be squeezed enough to affect the acceleration of price. I believe the SFAM disappointment will cloud semis through next week, at which point AMAT will report solid if unspectacular earnings followed with guidance of uncertainty. This will weigh on semis. It looks to me that semis turn on Korea's rebound. That will not happen until we see a turnaround in debt and credit for those companies. And THAT cannot happen until the IMF gets additional funding, a POLITICAL event, which then leads private funding into Korea. The odds of that are 50:50 at best. Then, there is yet another hurdle of generating cash from operations enough to buy more equipment. THAT is six to nine months away. CYMI is tradable, but be very, very careful. I would hedge all long positions, maybe even all short positions. That's what options are for! Good luck, Matt