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Biotech / Medical : Neurobiological Tech (NTII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Wright who wrote (260)	2/6/1998 8:18:00 AM
From: Dr. John M. de Castro	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 1494

On paper you are correct that NTI has a $2MM market value. But, you need to emphasize the word market. If you tried to purchase controlling interest the market would respond and raise the price. If there was a single buyer and a single seller, a $2MM transaction might be possible. But, most investors would demand considerably more for their shares. I have no intention of parting with mine at current valuations. The $2MM market value underscore for me the rediculousness of the situation. Memantine for neuropathic pain addresses an market of 600,000 suffering people who have not viable alternative and must take the drug chronically. What would you guess would be the yearly revenue generated by such a drug? Assume a very modest 15% market penetrance. Further assume that memantine sells for $2 per dose and is taken twice daily. This would produce sales of $1460 per year per patient. This is not much for relief from unrelenting pain. Multiply this times 90,000, yields $113.4 million. I have no idea what memantine would sell for, probably considerably more. I am just trying to put this $2MM market cap in perspective using very conservative numbers. The Phase II results show that memantine is probably effective. There is no question of its safety and safety issues are the main reason why drugs fails in clinical development. A Phase III trial would not be very expensive to run and could be completed in a year or less. Manufacturing is not a problem and the drug can be made in bulk cheaply. NTII's patent position is strong and clear. Please tell me what I'm missing here? John de C