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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Candle stick who wrote (8072)	2/6/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: brian h	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Candle stick, I believe you need to do a lot more research before shorting this stock. QCOM does not sent out any phone to Korea yet. None after the cancellation of Q phone order from Hansol. Their ASIC sales cover Asia, QPE itself, LU, MOT, NT, and others. It is only a small portion of their total revenue. You argument has better be that QCOM does not make money on its handsets sale. Which no other CDMA companies will be able to make any in the near term. (maket shares, competitions, etc.) Go do you research before making apples and oranges comments. God luck to your short. Brian H.

To: Candle stick who wrote (8072)	2/6/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: Sawtooth	Respond to of 152472

Candle stick: I don't know about the CYMI analogy but I think the basis of your prediction is correct. Interesting article in latest Bloomberg mag talking about how investors have become "conditioned" to thinking that significant dips are always buying opportunities. But, the reality is that, with general conditions and external factors different than they have been the last few years, those significant dips are more frequently the beginning of a prolonged downturn. My personal opinion is "we aint' seen nothin' yet" as far as Asian effect. Those with most exposure will sit on the toilet first. The "flu" will run it's course and we'll be back to business after awhile.

To: Candle stick who wrote (8072)	2/6/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

You could possibly be right about 50% decline, but off of the 52 week high (~70), not the recent high (~56). The previous decline was over Korean fears. The one today over the first actual impact reports. Agree that Qcom has quite a bit further down to go. Part of the current problem is that Q was not completely transparent (for what they probably legitimately claimed were competitive reasons) re: the contribution of Asic profits to their bottom line. It appears that overall Asic sales were responsible for more than 3/4 of net profits in the last few quarters. And Korea accounts for nearly half of Asic sales. (Profits in Omnitracs, CDMA royalties, Asic sales, big losses in infrastructure, some losses or break even in handset sales (with the hoped for margins in higher cost phones being pushed out by the conference call). And then of course overhead, esp. big R&D, to support by all. Doug