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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (918)	2/6/1998 6:50:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 2068

Pancho, I'm just curious: What was the main motives for you to take on OXHP? Thomas: I never have a reason not to give as honest an answer as I can (as long as I see no risk of a potential lawsuit). First, the big picture: We (the US population) are getting older, managed care institutions (e.g., HMO's)shot themselves in the foot by miscalculating capitation fees (a fixed payment per patient per year in exchange for care) but HMO's will not be taken for a ride for ever, the big bucks will come back we want the best care and will pay for it. IMO the situation HMO's are going through now is similar to the situation with drug companies in the early 90's, people were concerned Clinton's reform would affect their profitability. The truth is HMO's will come back. My first shot was COL. I started going long at 28 and added at 27, thinking the point of max hate had been reached; and guessing the government would not really get much money from them (they never get much money back from crooks, it is not their money, just easy tax payer money). However, I got concerned as negative news did not stop coming and sold at 30+ (check the COL thread and you will see my views and trades on this stock). Now OXHP: When the drastic drop happened last fall, I turned on my radar, but was careful not to jump in at the first drop (have done this mistake enough times), Momentum carries (up and down, this is why, for example, I did not buy QCOM today. IMO it still may drop more). My interest on OXHP is their tremendous franchise. they do command a significant market share, attractive franchise, a license to make big bucks when the system is fixed. When the shares reached 14 early-mid December, I was tempted to buy, seeing little downside risk; however,I remembered the advice of many wise men (including Lynch), regarding waiting for positive signs of a turn-around, you may miss some of the price action but you gain in reduced risk. So when last Friday the stock went up three points on takeover rumors, I knew some smart guys with much more information/hard work than I had (I must admit I took all my actions without reading a single 10K/ 10Q, which I should have). I told myself the cataalyst is here, if the price does not jump sky high on Monday, I am in!, with a stock price low enough to warrant low risk in this crazy market. So I jumped in on Monday. I intend to hold long term unless the story does not improve/worsens in a one year time frame. End of story. Pancho