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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (13944)	2/6/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

James; I do hold with you; I was saying it in another context , in as much as the stocks went up in the face of the weaker dollar..could mean stocks stronger than we normally see, weak dollar not the cause. (like ) Normaly I would expect the weak dollar to be a drag on the equities, and when it's not then equities are showing strong. ( clear as mud huh ? ) Seems Funds held on to some inflows DEC and JAN..and built cash reserves , wanting to see were the market was heading. Now that it's moving they are getting in it more fully . Some of the funds I looked at yesterday still had 6% to 7% in cash, well shoot that into the market it and stocks get more than a 6 or 7 % rise in price out of it. So I think the equity market is being fed mostly by reserves in the mutual funds right now, that can de-couple equities from the international value of the dollar at least for a time. As a matter of fact there is a chance that the value of the dollar could get draged along. -------------------------- Like Bill said there is no perfect indicator, 401k, and ira money had come in, and a lot of it didn't get invested because of the bearish out look, the out look started to change about JAN12, but was still mixed up till last Friday and is now gaining a more bullish outlook day by day. At least thats my take on it. If Foreigners want to buy in they will liklely have to buy dollars to get in..there are times the equities lead a countries currency, ( most often the other way around but that's not written in stone.) Other contries don't have the mutual fund base type of system we have and were they do it's not near the size. ---------------- Bonds were de-coupled, but seem to have re-conneted now. If we see both interest rates And stocks go up, then we will be heading for thin ice, so far the puppy looks more happy than I expected, and I think a lot of fund managers are starting to say the same thing. -------------------- These Funb-dums as Mike calls most of them, like their jobs and are mostly timid..they don't want to be wrong when all the rest are right..that looks bad..were if they go with the flow and are wrong then most of the others are too and that don't look so bad. They bray like wolves but move more like a herd of sheep. <G> Jim

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (13944)	2/7/1998 12:11:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

James; RE the Dollar..just checked AM/to/PM dollar on 6th, for what it's worth the dollar did follow the stock market up, seems unless we see a big move in the dollar ahead of our market it's not a good short term indicator. Like one time it leads , the next it trails, except on kinda large moves, were it most always leads. Jim