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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Lempel who wrote (11386)	2/6/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: Spots	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12298

One answer is that when the supply/demand balance turns there will be an undersupply of heads, and that every supplier will be booked over capacity. I am not proposing this as a foregone conclusion (by no means). What I am saying is that any analysis should address this point if it's to be reasonably complete. WDC, QNTM, (probably not IBM) would want APM heads because they need them. Also, I don't buy the "unproven" part, none of these buyers are going to buy unproven heads from anybody, but APM is carrying out ongoing qualification programs, at least that much is clear (insofar as we can accept what they say anyhow). Personally I think APM will trade down near book value, which, as you correctly point out, is bleeding away, before they trade up significantly. BWDIK? Spots

To: Brian Lempel who wrote (11386)	2/12/1998 6:48:00 PM
From: DAVID BANISTER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

After further research, I swapped out of APM today and into RDRT at 15 3/16 I also bought some rdrt yesterday at 15 5/8! The stock was 16 5/8 this morning on heavy volume, but closed down to 14 7/8 on what appears to be a technical only move. I suspect the stock returns to upper teens in not too distant future...I agreed with your analysis on APM, and it seems if anything RDRT might gain market share here and bury them.