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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Horgad who wrote (182177)	12/31/2021 1:21:15 PM
From: sense	2 Recommendations Recommended By Lee Lichterman III Pogeu Mahone Respond to of 217739

It makes far more sense to me than beanie babies ever did... But, that's still more of a relative utility argument than me suggesting it as an investment strategy. I'm not dissing collectibles, though... i think "real things' during periods of elevated inflation risks are not the worst possible choice... and, "if you don't hold it, you don't own it" is as true for other real things as it is for gold, or even the crypto equivalent in "not your keys, not your crypto"... I grew up collecting stamps and coins... although my interests now run more toward improving my collection of rare books, and alternately growing and shrinking the wine collection. I probably should have stuck with and hung onto those baseball cards I had when I was 7 years old. If I had, they'd probably be worth more (to some else) than my house, now... Mickey Mantle card crushes record after selling for $5.2 million The most relevant line from that article here, is the last one: "The Mantle record is also part of a boom in sports memorabilia that took off last year and has continued in 2021". The markets, for now... mostly continue holding their breath... but, the Evergrande issue in risks being realized seems it may have finally begun to show there is fallout coming... that shift appears it is finally beginning to resonate... But, the markets are still stuck in post-holiday stupor, too... so, its not too clear yet if the decline in volumes we're seeing now is just... people spending time with the family... hitting the slopes with a fresh layer of powder just applied, as temperatures keep things light... ? Or, huddling around the stove and adding layers because the power is out ? The two parallel risks faced now, as has been true for a long time... and with not much potential for positive outcomes in any broad middle ground between them... have been, still are: One, "the wheels coming off"... with markets crashing, and crashing in the way we've been warned is inevitable in a bubble, for some time... 1929 level stuff... leading to an accelerated entry into 1930's style deflationary depression. A properly cynical observer might note... that is pretty much what we've already got, anyway, given all the Covid craziness....supply chain disruptions... and a world that seems oddly intent on replaying the worst bits of history from parallel eras in the prior century... not as a sequel but as an odd patchwork in a somewhat too carefully crafted and staged re-make. Fauci makes a fine Mengele stand in. Gates, though, disrupts the verity of the period... by injecting a bit of Lex Luthor or Bond Villainy into it... maybe..."sharks with frickking laser beams" ? All of that seems already absorbed as a part of the culture now... even before the market indexes get around to punctuating the point... with proofs. Two, "inflation running out of control"... potentially accelerating in bursts that quiet the critics who've been saying... "yeah, this is not the 1970's"... with an "Wow. I'll say its not"... while many are still failing to distinguish in risks between the risks realized in the 1970's in the major markets, and the 1970's in Argentina. We've got Turkey, today... already showing us what's possible if you put your mindless to it. This two pot solution seems its been warming up for quite some time already... with we mere frogs enjoying the jacuzzi... pretty sure they're pumping that air in... and the pots are not yet actually boiling ? But, which of those outcomes... on the list of options that we're not already experiencing while sustaining our distraction from the implications... are we more likely to experience ? Seems increasingly clear now that... as was true in the events of the 1930's "both" is the most correct answer... the rest being mostly questions of amplitude and degree... or of timing and sequences... with awareness that a bit more of this here... and a bit more of that there... is solidly baked in to things now... That's actually no different than what I was predicting already quite a while back... its just there's been a lot of smoke and mirrors being applied... disco balls and lasers... music (noise) loud enough there's no chance for a quite conversation in the corner... but, suddenly... it seems all those things are on holiday, now, too... so a bit of clarity occurring on the last day of the year... Those interested in collectibles... who've been told that "real things" will retain value better when inflation risks are realized... aren't wrong... as most real things will outperform under conditions of accelerating inflation and weakening currencies... Collectible values, though, also follow markets... rather than flow in counterpoint to them.... so, values will tend to peak along with other things... in the later stages of overly bubbly market behavior. The right time to buy collectibles... is after the market bubble has already popped... and those long running bulls find the streets are suddenly more full of bears than breeders or veterinarians. Art is often touted as insulation... and perhaps that will prove true this winter... as the heat gets shut off ? But, its not different than other things... as perception of value depends so much on the cultural context of "what's up" ? Forced liquidations tend to occur after markets crash... note,,, after... art collections being liquidated tends to been seen at or near to the tail end of market declines... well after things suddenly start to look like perhaps things might move more than one way, again... as the decline tapers and slides slowly sideways for a bit... removing all hope that a dead cat bounce higher might help re-float a troubled investment... The issue with collectibles is that they're not counter cyclic... but leveraged by the cycle... which is already quite long in the tooth... It you want to sell collectibles to raise some cash... that opportunity is probably already past... If you want to buy them as a store of value... the best time for that is probably not yet come... But, give it a bit of time... "soon" ? Maybe six months if we're lucky... before SHTF... then, maybe 18 months if we're lucky... before the smoke starts to clear a bit... and then collectibles finally let out that last breath as all hope is lost and liquidation has to occur... six months after that ? Or, maybe the current cycle has "bigger things in store" for us than prior market cycles ?