Hi Joe:
Thank you for your kind and generous words. I will work hard to be worthy of them. Thanks also for many excellent commentary and references you provide. Since joining this board, I have learned a great deal from you and other contributors and consider Novell's board most informed and informative.
The subject of posting on stock boards and inherent emotional and intellectual controversies and the resulting monetary consequences has been an on going personal debate for me. Questions such as: Should I only read a board or post as well? Do I want to engage in serious dialogue and debate...? What if I strongly disagree or consider the other party wrong...? After a number of years...I have not found a satisfactory answer but the questions have thought me!
It is a fact that majority of posters are long and do not welcome bearish remarks-- however valid. Most people are only interested in receiving "confirmation" EVEN if IT is wrong and costs them investment dollars. Most people do not recognize, IMHO, that what is posted on UNSPONCERD stock boards of liquid stocks has no bearings on what a stock will do. Others, may simply be superstitious and consider a negative comments as a "jinx." Of course, the most common suspicion is the "short's conspiracy" cries. No need to belabor the point. What is needed is a personal philosophy and collection of tools for dealing with each board, with its unique and ever changing cast.
Ideally, in my humble opinion:
1- -The primary objective of being on a board is to be enriched intellectually and financially. Sounds selfish and greedy but,
2- -The secondary objective MUST be to contribute and enrich the board:
3- - Provide verifiable profile or post under a screen name
4- -Not to get personal.
5- -Not to take things personally
6- -Take every body seriously and expect to be taken seriously
7- -Not to speed read--at the cost of comprehension
8- -Not to speed write-unless one can or must
9- -If attached personally; A--Leave the board or B--Responde (hopefully in a "civil" manner) and make peace as soon as possible, remembering how cold and impersonal printed words are.
10- -Remembering why one is on a board: To learn to invest and trade better, not to win debates or "defeat" others.
11- -Remembering other people are smart too (!!!) and one can learn from them!
12- -Trying to be brief, optimistic, respectful, complimentary if genuine opportunity is offered, saying what we mean, meaning what we say, do not recommend buys and sells, welcome genuine opposition, view all boards as dangerous grounds where we can get harmed, give extra credit to posters with verifiable names and positions, answer questions, expect answers to specific questions.
I am sure you and others would like to add to this list. I hope you will. Please kindly remember the list is my ideal and not what I claim I live by. ;-)
Finally, taking notes of regular posters and eventually forming an opinion as whom to believe and listen to and more importantly whom not to believe and listen to is key. Good posters are not necessarily those agreeing and giving us confirmations. Sometimes the "good" is given by the so called "bad" posters! Here a touch of contrarianism is needed.
For example, I have a major position in a stock which has become difficult to call, by valid measures of a few weeks ago. At this time, one may just about say anything and not be too wrong--for a while! Well, on another board, there is this poster who calls the action at difficult points! He loves the challenge and has the courage to offer his neck! I used to mark his calls on the stock chart! It did not take long for a pattern to appear. So I started to fade" his calls --without ever posting to him or talking about his views. If he were bullish, I turned bearish and vice verse. <GGG>
Well, few days ago he called for a price pull back, stopping me from lightening up! What do you know?! The stock moved up about 20%. My point here is not self-serving ... It just happens that the poster, for any of infinite reasons, is out of rhythm with the stock. It could be a wrong indicator he uses and or misreads. He may be listening to his inner voices which are garbled at the moment. I don't know and it doesn't matter. What matters is not to be "mad" at him, but to listen to him while he keeps the streak alive. LOL
Of course, the first time he changes his call, I will have some soul searching to do. Now, imagine if I tried to debate this fellow! He would slamm me, as he did once before when I objected to his call for the stock to go higher! (he writes well and is very sarcastic) It did not matter that I was one of the most bullish posters on the board. He probably never spent time to consider my post. All he saw was someone who had come between him and his call. Others posters were negative too, but I was the unfortunate first, and he let me have it. <GGG>. No, it did not matter that he "missed", he just carried on as if IT never happened.
Why not! Newsletter writers and TV commentators of fame do the same.
In fact, the sooner they make NEW prediction(S), the sooner the old ones will be forgotten, by most. It takes a Peter lynch or a Laszlo Birinyi to go back and review year old bad calls, however infrequent they may be. That is how legends (and lots of money) are made.
In my humble opinion, all great investors have a one-word--key to success:
HONESTY.
You Sir, are honest. So, keep up the good work and enjoy the good investment and trades you have and ignore the rest. <G>
Good luck and happy LIFE,
Regards,
Seren.
PS.
Thanks for the earnings date and your good wishes. |
