Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (348)	2/6/1998 9:15:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Recently bought some tlab a bit under 50. They don't have much asian exposure. Lor, gstrf have asian exposure but it is far out, not until 99 at all, and not really until end of 99 (cause the world doesn't expect Asia to be the first adopters)...so the exposure there shouldn't be too big...though at some point I'm sure there will be a scare. Amat, Qcom, Boeing, have big exposure. Lu less, but not below S&P average. If you asked me, which you didn't, I'd sell those first three at this point, buy back during next general market asian crisis (which I absolutely promise you will re-occur. Exactly when is much harder.) Corning I know nothing about. I think oil service generally is a good bet. Bought RIG, DO, NE, FLC a week or so ago, as they started back up (in individually fairly small amounts but in aggregate, a double or more position). Reason is that fears of SEA here at these prices are probably at least fully reflected in the spot oil price, and way over reflected in the oil service stock prices. The oil service cos get orders based on estimated three or so year forward average price of oil, rather than its current spot price. Deep water has the best supply/demand imbalance and benefits most from recent oil exploration technology enhancements. Software looks good to me as well, generally. Efii is at this point I think actually a good fairly safe bet on Japanese export recovery (is by far the dominant supplier of software that turns office color copiers (whether made by Xerox or Japanese cos. such as Canon, Ricoh, etc.) into client/server networked color printers. Pmtc despite its run is interesting. Neta. Probably still psft, with almost zero Asian exposure, but future prospects (they are and have been support personel constrained, and are the leading North American (think they are actually based in Toronto land) enterprise accounting software co. (SAP being german and Baan being Dutch, and both having multiples way north of 50x forward earnings.) I've made some money trading ctxs but its pretty expensive now. Itwo is always expensive, but pretty darn interesting. don't own either now. lastly, some non commodity (or semi commodity) chip cos might be interesting as bottom fishing plays, where asia is more than discounted. LSi (Which I know you were in before) and Cube bear some further looking, I think. Might get back into creaf, where I made some good money and ran a few months ago. It has been sucked down by general SEA business as its based in Singapore. Even though nearly all sales are in US and Europe. They are the Soundblaster people. You know, they own PC audio, have for years. Regards, Doug

To: JMD who wrote (348)	2/7/1998 1:08:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29987

Take it easy Mike. You are letting people panic you. Qualcomm is better now than last week. I say stick with it. This is an obvious outcome from the Korean troubles. I'm sticking with my original statements, namely, Qualcomm gets a billion bucks compliments of the Fed printing machine and buys Samsung or whichever cdmaOne company they fancy. Ericsson will probably do the same which will conveniently get them into the cdmaOne market. If anyone is surprised by some cancellations and general omigod out of Korea, they haven't been reading the papers. But it doesn't mean the sky is falling. New Zealand did exactly the same thing. I mean exactly. In 1987, big time crashings after property speculations, with banking crisis and all that stuff. Unemployment shot up. Quite a recession. Many properties to lease. But you know what? Cellphone sales just carried on increasing all the way. Because they aren't a luxury. They are an economic tool for day to day living. They give users a return on investment in time saved, orders received, communication in general. If anything, cellphone orders will increase as people get back to work instead of thinking they are rich Koreans who can fly around the world to NZ drinking pina colada. Now they have to stay in Korea and get back to work. That means more cellphone sales. Wheeee!!!!!! Said Dr. Irwin Jacobs, chairman and CEO of QUALCOMM Incorporated. "We are working actively with our Korean customers to help them weather this difficult economic downturn. CdmaOne technology continues to be rapidly deployed around the world. That means they are looking at buying! How else can they help them weather this difficult economic downturn? And I bet Ericsson is in like a hungry dog too. Remember Qualcomm went shopping for property in San Diego during the slump and came up with super quantities for cheap. Well, they can do that with Korean cdmaOne companies and get instant access to Korean markets plus pick up some cheap equity in Korean companies. Meanwhile, Qualcomm owns a handy little chunk of Globalstar, which is going to start flying pretty soon. That will deliver cdmaOne phone service right into "Asia's" backyard. Several years ago, a Qualcomm guy told me that they expected to sell cdma handsets like 6 packs. Just pick a pack up at the corner store. Sure the Q-phone and Globalstar phones are expensive to start. But the inherent cost is low. There are cheaper models for those who don't want to pay the high margin. What a laugh that a couple of cancelled orders, which was an obvious outcome of an economic crunch in Korea, caused such commotion again. Everyone bar a few in the Qualcomm stream are panicky and crying doom. Even old die hard Ramsey is folding, largely on the basis of a high P:E Dow and Asian overflow problems. But did I buy in the latest downcrunch - which I admit surprises me at how low it has gone - I bought in at $51 and it was the first time I have subsequently seen the price go lower than I paid. I therefore underestimated the panic. Too bad. No, I didn't buy Qualcomm. I bought Techniclone [TCLN]. Yep, I'm now an expert on how many erlangs fit into a monoclonal antibody. Take a peek at TCLN! Have you seen such a graph heading for zero? Anyway, I've just come back from rolling in the ocean at Piha. Nobody can be pessimistic after that. Maurice.