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To: John Carpenter who wrote (10906)2/6/1998 9:06:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
John, both Zacks and First Call are compilations of analysts' estimates, and neither is definitive. Because they don't include the same financial houses, mean estimates will differ. In any case, many of the numbers generated by the analysts actually come from the companies through "guidance". They do this in an attempt to avoid disappointing shareholders and triggering lawsuits.

Morgan Stanley periodically studies the accuracy of the earnings estimates and found last quarter (if memory serves me correctly) that approximately 80% of the estimates for the S&P500 companies were incorrect, with about 60% too low. Since nobody places any credence in those estimates, there is now the phenomenon of the "whisper" number.

Regards,

Paul



To: John Carpenter who wrote (10906)2/6/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: Carmine Cammarosano  Respond to of 95453
 
My expirence has been that the estimates are close...more importantly, is the earnings revisions...if up, good...if down, bad...good luck!