To: Andrew H who wrote (938 ) 2/7/1998 12:59:00 AM From: flightlessbird Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1574
Well, I suppose the price of popularity is that the stock will gain its set of detractors as well as its adherents. Yes, I was in early but I didn't dump. In fact, the strong hands continuing to hold and keeping a choke on supply like myself are probably what contributed to the runup since I and several others own a large percentage of the float. As to valuations, I have made my arguments already on that count. Though I am very familiar with the numbers and believe they can appropriately justify a stock in the $1-2 range, I have always from day one viewed this as a "name recognition" stock. I believe its perceived value will justify a higher price more than its fundamentals. And you can flame away all you want but I have seen this again and again where stocks achieve a higher value simply because of their association with either popular figures, popular causes or popular entities. So, here, I felt I had a double winner in that ACCY stands a reasonable chance of achieving respectable earnings this year AND they will have some higher level of recognition than your average stock. Let me give you a little quiz: Which stock do you think will excite investors the most: a. An aluminum supply company. b. A magnetoresistance head manufacturer. c. A golf tournament company with Nicklaus on TV where you can watch the tournament that you actually own. Hmmmmmmmmm. I said before I don't care much for funnymentals or technicals. As long as they are viable, which I believe they are, then a high profile stock should attract buying attention. You can scream about valuations until you are blue in the face but all that will matter about this stock IMO is the public's perceived value. And so far I am right. And when the tournament is advertised, when people are watching it, when they hear from a broker "hey, you might want to check out this stock, their tournament will be on ESPN next weekend", that sale is MADE. What is fair value? Whatever the market is willing to pay for it. I think this stock will hold some unusual appeal being in a very popular sports market with marquis names. The only thing that remains is for ACCY to supply us with the remaining details, i.e., players, sponsors, tv rights. Upon revelation of quality variables there (that equal the level of a Nicklaus or Crenshaw), then I think this is a screamer. Check out Rambus (RMBS). The Board of Directors is a who's who in the technology world. It is name recognition. The company earned a penny last quarter and I believe is expected to earn something like .16 in 1999 or some ludicrously low amount like that. My point is that Rambus debuted at $12 and went to $90, trading at some god awful pe of around 9000. AND PEOPLE CONTINUED TO BUY RIGHT INTO IT. )Obviously it couldn't support that price and has now declined to a "comfortable" zone in the 40s . . . for a stock earning pennies and not likely to earn ANY reasonable amount for years). Point is name recognition. Who you are is often much more important to people. Sad but true. Whether I am right on this theory or not, the market will tell me. So far, seems to be a valid premise. Now tack on to that the fact that ACCY makes a reasonable profit on this first tournament, if they do, and you will DEFINITELY see this stock soar to unthinkable levels. Good luck if you choose to sit it out on the sideline. Don't be so wedded to fundamentals on a play like this. Take care. Flightlessbird (as always)