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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (14358)	2/7/1998 3:03:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

>>>Estimates from MSDW are for $0.40 '98. First Call for Q1 is $0.12 right now.<<< Did that earnings revision follow the Q4/97 report by CYMI? Let's say CYMI earned .12 Q1, then shows no sequential Q/Q growth throughout 1998. That still equates to .48 for the year, easily beating the '98 estimate. Proving just how misguided that revision is. Recall that in Q3/97, management stated it was looking forward to 40% sequential Q/Q growth for the first two quarters of 1998. Just how bad this Asian crisis was going to get couldn't be foreseen by management, so let's say the situation overseas impacts the DUV industry throughout the first half of '98, before the 40% sequential quarterly growth materializes. .12 is a 50% reduction in Q/Q earnings from Q4/97 -- Q1/98, far off the warning by management that earnings in Q1 would be 10 -- 15% off the prior quarter. But let me assume that the analysts are right, and management is wrong...and I'll push back the 40% Q/Q growth to the second half of '98. Q1 .12 (50% reduction in earnings from Q4/97) Q2 .12 (no sequential growth due to Asia stagnating DUV industry) Q3 .17 (anticipated 40% eps growth kicks in, but only on top of the reduced earnings in Q1 and Q2 -- a very unlikely and bearish outlook) Q4 .24 (40% growth over Q3, 0% growth over Q4/97) 1998 eps .65 -- beating analyst expectations of .40 '98 eps by 63%. My hypothetical scenario for 1998 is extremely bearish, not to mention unlikely...yet those numbers are very generous compared to the analysts. CYMI should have absolutely no problem destroying these outrageously pessimistic estimates. Style Pts.