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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (183022)	1/24/2022 10:02:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218043

In case you should know Message 33676467

To: carranza2 who wrote (183022)	1/26/2022 12:12:35 AM
From: Arran Yuan	2 Recommendations Recommended By maceng2 marcher Respond to of 218043

Excluding Homo sapiens, SD is a natural beauty!

To: carranza2 who wrote (183022)	2/8/2022 8:47:05 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218043

The countdown is 'on' and if ignition, then likely StocksDown US$Up BondsDown GoldDown, IOW, SDDUBDGD ask-socrates.com Blog 2022 First Quarter – It begins The Q1 arrays have been signaling its time to pay close attention for quite a while now. Not only do we see the Monetary Crisis Cycle (MCC) due, but also the ECM date hits on March 14. Central banks are finally accepting defeat but are not willing to accept any of the responsibility. I’m happy leaving the blame game to others; lets just look at what we can see from the models. Below we can see that bond markets have already turned, as expected, and there is no putting this genie back no matter how hard they try. US 2yr notes have rallied over 60bps, with the next targets up at 1.70%. Meanwhile, US 10’s are staring desperately north of 2% and only starts to get interesting north of 2.12%. Much of the talk surrounding the 2/10’s yield differential from year-end +78bp to today’s +60bp spread is because investors are seeking a different exposure. Under steady/normal market conditions, people play the duration exposure, but it appears that many are looking at cash exposure now. This could partially explain the demand for dollars outpacing yield and also the slower pace of the decline in 10’s. It is worth keeping an eye on the spread between euro peripheral debt and the spread between Europe and the US. It is worth remembering that when Japan started to implode back in the early 1980s, the BOJ effectively killed the bond market. Once the credit crunch became obvious, good quality corporate paper (AAA’s) traded through the government curve forcing demand through the JGB curve. Credit became the new fear contagion. Currency is always the pressure valve of the economy, and so this quarter should signal the start of the next trend. As stated previously, we can see the target weeks for the highs, but the trend has already been directed. Markets never move in one direction or in a straight line. Troughs and peaks are always present, but it is imperative we understand the long-term trend. Yes, we can see volatility, and the fewer the players, the greater the moves, but keep in mind that the long-term trend remains US dollar positive and in a global rising rates environment.