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Technology Stocks : YURI ( YURI SYSTEM ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (459)	2/7/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1181

John, This numbers game is just that a game. YURI, IMHO see's continued market share errosion. If you pick a year my estimate will be different. So 1 year from now perhaps they hold on to 25%. 3 years... lucky if they still have 10%. 10 years... I don't see a YURI. Second point which nobody here has saw fit to address. There seems to be a huge push among carriers these days to move toward IP based QoS environments. QWST and the new WILTEL, are prime examples. IT managers want to connect their IP environment to IP nets. The only hurdle is QoS which many many vendors are begining to deliver. With this it appears (and I mean APPEARS) that carriers are looking to build networks with ATM cores and IP edges. If this happens the ATM access market will not grow much beyond the $1-2B figures being thrown around. Furthermore in 10 years perhaps the ATM access market will be much smaller than they will be 5 years from now. This all being said I truely believe in ATM and ATM access for multiservice nets. My quandry is that it appears the best technology may not win due to complexity, resistance by IT managers, and the pressure IP oriented vendors are bringing to bear here. Now, before someone pulls out a gun on me.... I will repeat myself... I believe in ATM access and I very well could be wrong because ATM access is the RIGHT technology. But will ATM access succeed given all the barriers? Remember Beta and VHS? Gary