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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CraftBrew who wrote (166802)	1/22/2022 2:21:42 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	1 Recommendation Recommended By Hawkmoon Respond to of 218314

My good friend, first of all I want to thank you for posting and sharing your thoughts, they're always welcome... I see you haven't posted anything since 2007, please make yourself at home here and feel welcome to share any comments and thoughts you may have, there's always someone who could offer some feedback and some insight to your questions... To answer your question, I also think the monthly charts look absolutely terrible and that a more extended decline seems likely... If you had to believe anything, then it's best to believe what you see for yourself and not what others may think, doing your own homework is always the best policy when it come to these markets and probably with most things in life... I'm already short from the beginning of last week and I've been mentioning the high risk of a market decline due to the record high margin debt, a record high margin debt and an overvalued stock market don't mix too well... This first graph may be a few weeks old already but it's right on the point and explains very clearly why we're now witnessing this market decline... A chart showing the SP 500 fair value is below the first chart... GZ

To: CraftBrew who wrote (166802)	1/22/2022 3:59:39 PM
From: Trader77	1 Recommendation Recommended By Hawkmoon Respond to of 218314

Just like you I'm not an active trader anymore. There's definitely a lot of bearish buzz going on now making this one feel "different." Every story needs a "villain" and we've got Cathie Wood this time, not that she's done anything illegal that I'm aware of, but she ignored the risk models and now she's fallen, and people just like a good failure story in this industry (and who knows, maybe they'll bounce back). I unplugged from the day-to-day market happenings so if the current buzz is hitting my feeds (twitter, youtube, etc) you know it's pretty mainstream (something for the contrarians to consider I guess). I watched Cramer's video from Thursday I think where he's going through a checklist of items needed for the bottom and he says we're not there yet. I also saw a disgruntled value guy (upset that his value names are getting hit along with the no revenue growth stuff) justifying his stay the course approach. I live off the weekly's and, focusing on the NASDAQ since that best reflects the inflation-interest rate impact on Growth the best, we've lost long-term support. If it gets down to my lower bands I'll start thinking of re-allocating the defensive part of my portfolio back into equities to get a nice lower cost basis for the next leg up. My two cents and how I'm playing it.