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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl H. Gotsch who wrote (2472)	2/7/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

>>In assessing the market projections implied by your resource allocation, it would be good to know if these percentages refer to an active trading account or are calculated on your entire portfolio, i.e., including 401Ks, IRAs, etc. If they apply to everything, then you are indeed in a bearish mood!<g> << You got it! They apply to everything! The short trades on AHP, AOL, BFIT and WDRY last week took me from neutral to 20% short. This is however not a long term allocation. It is just that I usually sell [short and sell long positions] when the market is up and buy [longs and cover shorts] on weakness. This generalizes a bit as [I did go long OXHP and covered IPIC last week but net I went short] you should worry about momentum, but in general it has worked well for me. A simple "buy low sell high" approach combined with fundamental analysis and a bit of patience. Very seldom exceute what you may call a short term trade (i.e., week or day trade). The shorts I may cover short term are AHP, I have a short term time horizon for a significant correction. Mat also cover my extended AOL short for a quick profit if it goes back to 90. I would still keep half my position though. Pancho Pancho

To: Carl H. Gotsch who wrote (2472)	2/7/1998 2:50:00 PM
From: lizard lick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

BBTK-broadband is up almost 4 points in less than 2 trading days on a horrible quarterly report mixed with news of a restructuring of lucent relationship, quote"deal" valued at 50 mil over next several years, but part of the 50 mil is a penalty that is lucent has been obligated to pay bbtk. CEO will not disclose how much No doubt such a pecentage increase in the stock price is due to some short covering and a newbie cnbc buying frenzy at the menion of the name lucent,question is what is an appropriate short point, i think we are close to it. one upgrade on friday from hold to buy. anyone got an opinion of the situation ?