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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (44317)	2/1/2022 9:09:02 PM
From: rzborusa	Respond to of 72278

Thanks to all who frequent this board. The last couple of month have been nightmarish. With the blow out and the contest time to decompress, I can almost breathe again.

To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (44317)

2/1/2022 9:17:48 PM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 72278

Congrats on the EPS contest win!

I don't have a prize for you, other than my updated financial model for AMD over the next three years. Note that this is just the base line, as I am keeping gross margin and OPEX ratio flat for 2023 and beyond, with just a moderate 20% revenue growth (AMD's current long-term CAGR goal), and with no change in current share count.

My next update will include Xilinx, with my scenarios updated likewise.

AMD financial roadmap	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Revenue (billions):	5.8	6.7	9.8	16.4	21.5	25.8	31.0
Gross margin:		43%	45%	48%	51%	51%	51%
OPEX (ratio):		31%	28%	25%	25%	25%	25%
OPEX (billions):		2.1	2.7	3.9	5.4	6.5	7.8
Profit ex. other items:		0.8	1.7	3.8	5.6	6.7	8.0
Other items (tax, etc.)		0.03	0.07	0.35	0.52	0.62	0.74
EPS:		0.64	1.29	2.79	4.11	4.94	5.92
								CAGR
Revenue growth:		16%	45%	68%	31%	20%	20%	32%
Gross margin increase:		-	5%	7%	6%	0%	0%
OPEX ratio decrease:		-	10%	11%	0%	0%	0%
Shares outstanding (billions):		1.209	1.228	1.229	1.229	1.229	1.229

Notes:

Numbers for 2022 are AMD’s guidance. Numbers for 2023 onwards are set according to AMD’s financial model targets (20% revenue CAGR, >50% gross margin, mid-20s OPEX ratio, >15% FCF margin). Note that numbers do not include contributions from the Xilinx acquisition, which is expected to close in 2022-Q1. For analyst comparisons, see Zachs detailed estimates: zacks.com zacks.com