To: Bruce Lock who wrote (440 ) 2/8/1998 3:28:00 PM From: Jesse Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 822
CAPE TOWN, Feb 5 (Reuters) - World diamond prices are likely to stay under pressure for several years as new projects come on stream and key economies stay sluggish, a diamond analyst said on Thursday. In the near term, the economic downturn in the key diamond market of Southeast Asia is expected to hurt the market's main player, South Africa's De Beers Consolidated Mines Ltd . "The events in Southeast Asia are a little scary and I believe De Beers will take some strain this year," Hilton Ashton, global diamonds analyst for SMK Securities, told an international mining conference in Cape Town. Ashton expected the Central Selling Organisation, the De Beers marketing arm, to cut supply by 20 percent or more this year following a 10-percent fall in prices. "That clearly will have an effect on the bottom line and balance sheet, so be warned," he said. A surge in diamond exploration will hit supply in future years as several new mines come on stream. "We see a bit of oversupply by 2005, which clearly may have an impact on prices for the next eight to 10 years," he said. Ashton forecast world diamond production will climb to 113.5 million carats by 2005, up from 104.2 million carats in 1997. Canada is a key area of growth, with two major projects in advanced stages, each expected to produce between 4.5 million carats and 5.0 million carats annually. Canada's diamond mines are expected to produce 10.5 million carats by 2005. Africa's contribution is expected to jump to 64.5 million carats by 2005 from 49.8 million carats in 1997. Russian output is seen rising to 15.0 million carats from 13.3 million carats during the same period.