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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (183520)	2/3/2022 9:57:45 PM
From: bull_dozer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217740

The Grand Finale Plus Jerome Powell's nightmarish visions, escaped baboons, a Maple Leaf Revolution and more... - Bill Bonner We were on the “thread” yesterday…. Our investment director, Tom Dyson, was leading a discussion, loosely, on what will likely happen to gold as the debt bubble pops. Readers’ comments were impressive. Thoughtful. Intelligent. We could barely keep up. (You can find it on our BonnerPrivateResearch website, right here.) But each one had us wondering even more… how does this amazing circus end? What is the Grand Finale? Brian Hirschmann of Hirschmann Capital: Since 1800, 51 out of 52 countries with gross government debt greater than 130% have defaulted, either through restructuring, devaluation, high inflation or outright default. Government debt in the US went to 130% of GDP in 2020. It has since retreated slightly. But it won’t be long before it hits 130% again...and then 140%. And then what? When we left you yesterday, we were just doing a little simple math. What we discovered was that it was impossible to refinance America’s enormous debt at anything approaching ‘normal’ interest rates. Just to rehearse the numbers, we figured that a normal ‘real’ (after inflation) rate would be about 3%. With inflation at 7%, that means the nominal rate would have to be about 10%. Is there any way to refinance America’s $86 trillion in debt at 10%? Nope. It’s not possible… it would mean debt service payments of more than a third of GDP. ... ... Hirschmann continues: If central banks (CBs) could always keep interest rates low, no government would ever default. Yet, in 2020 alone, Argentina, Ecuador and Lebanon have defaulted despite their [central banks’] best efforts. Rich-country [central banks] have also been overwhelmed often (e.g. the 1965-82 US Great Inflation, the 1976 UK IMF bailout, Iceland’s 2008-11 crisis and the 2015 Swiss currency peg collapse). Worse yet, government debt is also currently at dangerous levels in other major economies, including Brazil, China, Japan, the UK and the eurozone. Further, the BOJ and ECB, among other major central banks, are executing reckless carry trades similar to the Fed’s. Thus, a government debt crisis in one country might easily ignite a global government debt crisis that pops the bubbles in China, US equities and US real estate Inflation? Deflation? Crashes? Busts? Blow-offs? Blow-ups? Blow-downs? Depression? Devaluation? New currencies? Yes – strike up the band and bring out the fireworks! The elephants! The freaks! The high-wire act! It’s all ahead – the Greatest Show on Earth. Let’s just be sure we’re watching from a safe distance! bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com