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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bharat H. Barai who wrote (8141)	2/7/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: Gaffer	Respond to of 152472

Another well balanced report from Tim Luke. lehman.com I agree that QCOM may want to look into manufacturing facilities in Korea. It is a good time to move capital to SEA. Also, because of the near term problems, potential suitors may make overtures to the company. The cost to borrow to acquire is very low. Someone with greater resources may want to capitalize on Qualcomm's great technology and personnel. This is not necessarily what I want, but I sense the possibility exists.

To: Bharat H. Barai who wrote (8141)	2/7/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Qcom guided analysts down to .23 from their previous .50+ for the March (2nd) quarter; they offered prospects of only slight improvement for the following quarter, and were not sure about the 4th quarter, but clearly will be big impact. Currently estimates are moving down from $2.00 area to $1.50-$1.40 area. That is ENORMOUS for a high PE high growth stock. You are also wrong as to where the great majority of Samsung and other Korean manuf. phone sales were destined....it was expected to be, and had been, Korea itself. In the prior conf.call Q had estimated that Samsung would step up its efforts to penetrate the US market, but that was looking forward a bit. It is not clear how long it will take Samsung and others to obtain enough financing to deal with expansion of export efforts. They are currently rather streached in trying to merely roll over and service their existing loans, which have exploded upwards in dollar terms as the Won collapsed. Meanwhile, domestic sales have, as we see, withered. That won't last forever, but how long domestic sales will remain quite depressed is hard to estimate. For everyone. What is clear now is the enormous bottom line exposure to the duration to the real economy crisis in Korea. Fact is, Qcom looses money on an operating basis in most other non-US areas. At least for now. (I.e., its infrastructure efforts in Chile, Russia, Phillipines, etc.) Sure Korea will recover. I dare say a lot lot faster than Japan has. (Although the trough will also be much deeper.) It is a deep hole they are now dropping into. How long it will take to climb back out is unclear. To EVERYONE. What I am quite sure about is that the market as a whole will come to be a lot more pessimistic about the speed of recovery than the Q thread is at the moment. That is when I will repurchase. (I sold out a big position in the mid 60s for very big six month or so gain, repurchased a small (1/3) position at 49.875, failed to sell out after the strong run up to 56 plus (although I was about to), sold out Friday am following the Thursday announcement and Conf.Call at 49 in the brief morning recovery; plan to repurchase in the 30s, or at least the low 40s.) (So far Ramsey and I have been right about the intermediate term effects of Korea particuarly and Asia in general (although I think neither of us or for that matter hardly anyone outside management knew how important Korean asic sales were to the Q's net profit line). And with respect to your jabs re: Asian geography lessons need.... I would be quite happy to match with the very great majority of educated people, certainly fellow Americans, my rather detailed knowledge of Asian and for that matter World geography, including cultural and economic geography. Its more than a passing interest of mine. Its based in part on extensive travel and more on lifelong interest. Among other things I have traveled (as a youthful merchant seaman adverturer on a college interlude) to Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, the Phillipines and Thailand. In East Asia, that is. Doug

To: Bharat H. Barai who wrote (8141)	2/8/1998 4:12:00 AM
From: qdog	Respond to of 152472

Hmmmm. There has been a great deal of discourse on this thread about Asia and the effects of it's present crisis. In listening to the conference call; QCOM management specifically warned that $.50 is out for 2nd Q and that $.26 is now the new guidance. The loss of phone and ASIC was termed "significant" by management. Management also had no guidance as to whether, at this time, if there was anything that could significantly offset this disruption. They were still positive about CDMA future, but for the next two Q's, they aren't at this point able to give much info. A test of resent low's are in the cards and probably lower, in lieu of any significant news that would offset for the 2Q. The company could neither not say anything nor keep this under wraps for any length of time. So they did the right thing in announcing it. They in essence, lost the "growth" effect that Asia has provide many companies. Until that problem rights itself, you can expect a 1 or 2Q min. of lower earnings. It isn't a one day event. The interesting thing is; how many other companies are in the same problem?? The flipside of the debate is: will they actually beat or better the 2Q's revised estimates? That is the more curious debate.... I'll pit my 14 years and six continents of ex-pat life with any. Jimmy Rodgers is also a geo-investor that travel the world on a motorcycle. His US market call is somewhat suspect, but generally he is very shrewd with global markets. Asia is something that he has been warning about for a better part of a year. I think that you should read back to September before questioning folks "panic". Some have been warning about the fragility of the market and since October, the affect about Asia. Even the Fed is somewhat concern about the Asian crisis; per their comments from Dec. FOMC meeting.