To: wombat who wrote (27359 ) 2/7/1998 7:12:00 PM From: William Harvey Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 41046
All, I think I can understand some of the pressure on this stock as a result of the preferred conversion that may take place the first of March. As you know (from the S-1) there are $5.4M in convertible preferred stock, 20% of which may be exercised in the first month. One share was equal to $10,000 at the start. JNC Opportunity came in a few weeks later and bought $2M of preferred. The formula for conversion is: [(.08)(N/365)(10,000)+10,000}/(W): N is the number of days since the preferred shares were bought. W is either a fixed conversion price, (1) the lesser of (a) $5 or (b) the average closing bid 20 days prior to the preferred shares being bought (ie, $5 for the $5.4M worth of preferred bought 10/31 and about $4.4 for the $2M bought by JNC--I just added up the closing price during those 20 day periods and divided by 20.). There is a second option for our variable W. W could be (2) 85% of the average closing price over 20 days preceeding the conversion (from months 4 through 6) and 80% of the average closing price over 20 days preceeding the conversion if the company opts to convert after 6 months. Should the price of Franklin skyrocket then not only do they gain the 8% per year return (no sense to sell right away) but they've effectively converted at $5 (and JNC at $4.4) so anything on top of that is profit. On the other hand, if it drops, then they still get the 8% per year but for the first three months (starting in March), and 1/.85, or a 17.6% premium above the average price preceeding their conversion. For example, we are already 20 trading days prior to the first conversion date. Suppose we have a couple of bad days but as the end of the month nears, we get to $5 1/2 per share but the average closing price was more like $4 1/2. W = $3.8 or 80% of $4 1/2. N = 120. For each share of preferred (remember, they can only sell 20% of their initial position per month), they get $14,854 for their original $10,000 preferred share price. The dynamics would indicate that this is a pretty good time to buy. Surf's up, dudes!!! geocities.com WH