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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (183847)	2/11/2022 10:32:16 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By dvdw© Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217561

As far as order of battle... Navigating the market, and only more in turbulent markets... requires first knowing where you are, before determining what it is that you need to do to get to where you're going... So, mapping "where we are" first... in market terms... means seeing the cycle, and seeing where in the cycle you are... I posted on that yesterday, here... showing a fairly predictable sequence... easy to track, and predict... if you do have a good read on "where you are" in relative terms in that long term view... It's pretty simple in my formulation as... 1. oil prices rise. 2. volatility spikes 3. markets crash 4. KOLD soars. And, rates vary in relation to... what "they" want them to be... what "they" want to happen... or... ??? Of course, you might find other things that track with the same drivers as those choices I've made... or find other things that fit predictably in niches between them ? But, the point isn't the specific picks made, but the nature of the relationships between things... And, from that... you can then work to determine how other things will be impacted by those main drivers... given the patterns, the range in deviations from them... and "its different this time"... as it always is. But, the "big" long term patterns... are also echoed in shorter term patterns... Gold and silver... in relation to the patterns... not the most predictably volatile... as, unlike oil, they don't have market advocates ensuring fair pricing and countering efforts in price suppression. The reality in "price control" for gold and silver... also means they don't track very well with the economic pulse... but tend to track, instead, with those intermittent events of policy failure... in which long repressed prices are suddenly forced free of their moorings by an inexorable rising tide... The inflation story... and the rise in oil prices being the most immediate and predictable counter to inflation... we've talked about before... But, as oil rises... gold and silver languish... until they don't... The news today... seems very likely to be the first EVENT this cycle in which the market was shaken awake and forced to realize... that is not "transitory"... and it is not "below thresholds of concern". And, as a lot of gold and silver pundits have been predicting... WHEN you see gold and silver start to move... you should expect they will MOVE... and, they say, there's not a lot the Fed can really do... As I wrote this... YouTube fed me a Bloomberg vid from yesterday, early in the day... the pundit noting, last, that "we haven't really covered CPI reporting since 1982... so if you see me reporting headlines on CPI days"... right after he'd soft-pedaled the coming news... saying 6% isn't bad, its right in the Fed's expectation... So, "nothing to see here"... Obviously, the market doesn't really agree that the numbers we got were "routine"... ??? But, here's a two week version... a very short period... of a chart like those from the prior post I linked... with today's events... 1 energy higher (oil has been on fire... KOLD is down) 2 vix spikes... it did that quite nicely, today 3.... ??? market crash ??? We had a bad day in the market... likely to have more of those, "soon"... 4 KOLD runs much, much higher ? I don't think we're there yet... I think we're just coming off a recent technical / seasonal spike in Nat Gas that will have KOLD moving higher for a month or so before Gas moves higher again... maybe by midsummer... I'm not saying today was the start of "the big one" ? But, it was good practice for that... And, inflation got a lot more real, today, for many people... The Fed still can't really afford to do much if anything about it... oil prices are already higher... so will have to go higher still... and... it looks like gold and silver's turn is coming... Wiggle room in the sequences in the shorter term, obviously... but, fascinating that same pattern is still there... But, notice what happened to the VIX, rates, KOLD and the market late today... and what didn't happen to oil... on a day the silver miners were up 5% to 7%... while the markets "crashed" ? Monday should be interesting... as the psychology has FINALLY begun to shift to reflect inflation as a reality... ensuring we will have more "interesting" days ahead...