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Today's Market Comments:
Stocks continued lower Monday, February 14th, closing above intraday lows. Volume was close to its 10 day average. Stocks are in a new Bear market, just experiencing its worst January since 1939, which Dennis Tubbergen noted during his February 6th, 2022, Radio show (see above link). The decline the past several days looks to be wave 1-down, and that wave looks complete with Monday's intraday lows. This should be followed over the next few days with wave 2-up. Once that tops, a powerful decline should follow. See charts on pages 38, 43 and 47.
If the Industrials and S&P 500 drop decisively below their intraday lows on January 24th, below 33,150 and below 4,222, we would have confirmation that the tops are in, and a massive Bear market CRASH is resuming in Blue Chips.
The stock market sits on two simultaneous "official" Hindenburg Omen potential stock market crash signals. The H.O.'s are warning that the odds for a full-blown stock market crash are far higher than random at this time, the third one on the clock through May, the second one through April. This stock market may be on the teetering edge. March into May could be ugly.
We can expect a continuing wild ride for the Stock Market in 2022. There are going to be a total of 18 Phi Mate and significant Bradley Model turn dates throughout 2022. There will be 7 turns that both cycle methods identify together. Those will likely be major turns in the stock market. By comparison, there were only 8 total Phi Mate and Bradley Model turn dates during 2021, with only two turns identified by both at the same time. We will progressively feed these forward dates to you during 2022. Trend Turns typically occur +/- a few days from these dates.
The stock market has declined sharply between November and March in nine of the past thirteen years (70 percent of the years). This is likely to occur again in early 2022.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal November 26th. It fell 6 points Monday (out of a possible 9 points), to negative - 40.
The Blue Chip three component key indicator remains on a Neutral signal. The NASDAQ 100 three component key indicator moved to a new Sell signal Monday. The small cap Russell 2000's Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Buy.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Neutral signal February 10th, 2022 and remain there Monday, February 14th, 2022. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Thursday, February 10th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on February 10th, 2022, and the 30-Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on February 2nd, 2022. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power Fell 8 to 470 Monday, while Supply Pressure Rose 4 to 540, telling us Monday's Blue Chip decline was strong. This DP/SP Indicator generated a Sell Signal January 18th.
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators triggered a new Buy signal February 7th. On Monday, Gold rose 27.3, Silver rose 0.48, and Mining stocks rose 5.12. Miners and Metals are meandering in sideways fashion, Gold struggling to break up out of its "Handle" pattern. It is stuck in a trading range inside its Handle pattern. Gold did rise to the upper boundary of its Handle on January 20th, but met powerful resistance there, and is now falling again. Once it breaks out above it, the Handle will be complete, and a clear path for much higher prices will be in place.
Perhaps this new Buy signal from February 7th, in the HUI key indicators, will provide the momentum Gold needs to bust out above its Handle pattern. It has not done so as of Monday, February 14th.
Gold started a Bullish Cup and Handle pattern in 2011. The Cup portion completed a year ago, and since then Gold has been declining inside the handle portion of the pattern, which is the concluding piece. While the timing for a breakout is slow and frustrating for Gold bugs, one thing we can be assured of is once it breaks out of the Handle, a powerful rally will follow, one for the ages.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Buy signal February 7th, 2022, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal February 7th, and the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Buy on February 7th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Buy signal February 14th. On Monday, February 14th, Demand Power rose 4 to 402 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 390, telling us Monday's rise was moderate.
DJIA/SPY PPI fell 2 to negative -18.81, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 38.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 26.67 Slow 50.56 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 30.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 10.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 6.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 6 to Negative - 40, On a Sell
Demand Power Fell 8 to 470, Supply Pressure Rose 4 to 540 on a Sell
McClellan Oscillator fell to negative -110.18
McClellan Osc Summation Index - 1067.01
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -334.4 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 24 New Lows 486
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Sell signal Monday, February 14th, 2022, and remain there February 14th, 2022. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on February 10th, 2022, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on February 11th, 2022, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on February 14th, 2022. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Sell Signal Friday, February 11th, and remains there February 14th. On Monday, February 14th, Demand Power Fell 11 to 519, while Supply Pressure Rose 19 to 546, telling us Monday's decline was powerful, with the Plunge Protection Team buying the market hard.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal February 14th, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative -5.4 on Monday, February 14th.
NDX 100 Purchasing Power Indicator was Flat at + 240.84 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 19.23 Slow 36.15 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 24.36 Slow 55.13 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -5.4 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 2 to 517, Supply Pressure Fell 7 to 539 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 1 to 178.80, on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -145.40, On a Buy
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary from that report is an educational service providing a body of technical analysis that measures the possibility and probability of future changes in mass psychology (swings from pessimism to optimism and back) which identifies possible new trends in major markets within various time frames, from very short term (daily) through very long term (years and decades). The tools we use are based upon price patterns, indicators and other proprietary measures that we have identified as correlative to future market trends. While an investor or trader could come up with ideas and strategies from the information published in our reports, at no time should a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended by this publication or our other services. We are not offering investing advice, but are only offering some (but not all) of the information that can be used in the investment decision making process with your own personal financial adviser. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by Robert D. McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your adviser to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions. Information contained herein is believed to be reliable, but the publisher cannot be held liable for errors or omissions. No specific advice can be construed from the following. The reader is solely responsible for all actions taken. Please refer also to our disclaimer in the back of the newsletter from which this Executive Summary is derived. Copyright c 2022 Robert McHugh |
