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To: SteveG who wrote (2676)	2/8/1998 1:16:00 AM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9236

ADSL bulls, take with requisite grains... After hearing the talks at HQ conf last week, I came away more skeptical of ADSL's time frame than I have previously been. Some highlights- AMTX's Steenburgen thinks the CPQ proposed internal ADSL modems will be VERY problematic on the physical layer (w/ a max of 500khz, IF anyone even DOES internal), that splitterless will hurt the field more than help (not a surprising comment from the "owner of T1E1.413) and he acknowledges the significant layer 2 through 6 integration and interoperation "challenges". He still beats the HK/Europe drum and his perennenially optimistic (but by most other participant's estimation - WAY off) projections of 5MM TI-Amati modems in 2001. Most others doubted we'd see a total of 5MM BROADBAND devices (incl. cable modem & broadband microwave) several years after that. Pairgain's Harris estimated that it'd be 2 years until we see ADSL install rates of 200K/year (not surprising from a co. making a LOT on HDSL which WILL effect ADSL tx rates if in the same bundle). But the higher layer problems (brought up by Broadband Tech) add significant additional concerns to this field. Remember, Noel's AWRE raise was a TRADING buy, and fwiw, is pretty much done for now. On the positive, bandwidth is THE mantra... too bad ADSL is not a tamer, more refined animal and the telcos more the adventurous types. I see primarily a future of broadband wireless (for business/tenement) and 2way cable (security/shared bndwth issues are addressed) RBOCs may be making waking-up noises, but stirring is a LONG way from being dressed, or even getting up. May not be what many like to hear or agree with, but it's how I (and a lot of others in the industry) see it. OTOH, I also wouldn't want the risk of being longer term short ADSL stocks - they trade too emotionally, and eventually we WILL get some deployment announcements. After they gap up into the 20s might be a time to sell them.