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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52059)	2/16/2022 1:14:35 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 Jacob Snyder Respond to of 96676

On the E&P side especially large cap issues I don't disagree even though many are still cheap based upon $80 oil for the next 1-2 years. In terms of the service plays the OIH is really just starting to break out on the weekly and SLB could easily just keep running to 50/60 area at this pt. Many wells were drilled pre-covid but never completed. That inventory is pretty much gone at this pt. OPEC again is struggling to keep up w/a 400K increase since Dec. This is far more newsworthy than Ukraine. Conventional wisdom is out/shorting many of the oil names now on eventual de-escalation, but yesterday many of my names finished higher w/down oil prices. There's also a chance that oil goes above the channel and then accelerates. Again the big story imo is that OPEC fields are in decline and given the underspending that went on the previous 5 years this cycle is going to last a while. Some of these small cap E&Ps are going to go from poor balance sheets just 1 year ago to clean balance sheets, buying shares and paying dividends and that's likely to last for at least the next year plus. Still not reflected when trading at 3x cash flows at $80 oil. I see oil going to $120 area sometime in next 12-18 mo. But I don't chase, no need to when I can add stuff like CHX. I did some selling today too, but in names near the top of their range.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (52059)	2/16/2022 1:33:27 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96676

XOP weekly I understand why people are out, but I disagree with it. You just have to look deeper and find the right issues. I'll be more cautious on energy once the XOP has hit my min target for this breakout which is 130. Energy is still very much underowned and due to broad market weakness, Ukraine and the fact that energy has run from 60 ish to 90+ has most people out, but shares keep getting bought on any dips. Could we see 85 oil and XOP back to 95-100 again, sure, but I'll be adding selectively vs selling if that happens and more than likely I'd be partially hedged on any decline. Can see MACD on weekly as well. This has unfinished business... OVV is mirroring the XOP here, but far cheaper, decent oil production and will pay very nice divvy later this year. If oil is still strong 2023 will be massive as poor hedges run off and debt is repaid further. But I like other oily E&Ps far more sub 1 billion in cap. AJ will probably say this needs one more decline to 90 again based upon mirror pattern....maybe, that's why I'm heavier oil service plays and very selective in E&Ps.