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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (10990)	2/8/1998 1:50:00 AM
From: John Carpenter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I agree with all of your points. It also made me glad that Transocean Offshore is my core holding. Thoughtful and well written analysis.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (10990)	2/8/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Lee Fredrickson	Respond to of 95453

Baird: Thanks for your response. Count you in my 'Read All's.' Incidentally, would you E-mail me something? There have been times when I've wanted to ask your opinion on some matter or other which was not 'strictly drilling...' but couldn't. Will not be pesty if you should do so. And of course, confidentiality will prevail. Thomas M.--Two great bookmarks! Am glad to find a source for access to the bizarre mind of Gary Larson. Big Dog--Excellent indicator! As a holder of GW, I'm interested in all the indicators I can find. My guess is a sporting breed, what with your love of hunting... to my mind there's nothing in the world better than a Labrador Retriever, so that's my entry. Sandy--"...hate it when I get exempt." <LOL> This thread on the week-ends gets better and better!, much to The Spousal Unit's chagrin and irritation. Thean, you are not alone! Lee

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (10990)	2/8/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: William L. Oppenheim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

What is described is just the usual product or business cycle. From scarcity to excess and back again. The problem is to define the length of the cycle and to decide where you currently are in relation to it. With prices high and rising and profits following, we seem to be on the upsweep. Sure, eventually there may be an excess--four or five or seven or eight years from now--but to know you have to be able to predict both the supply of oil and the demand for it at that point. Good luck. How to tell--day rates will stabilize, order backlogs will begin to drop-- and the market, a six month leading indicator, will have collapsed. For now, world demand appears to be rising. Rigs are in short supply, the oil service industry has been through a brutal short term correction. If not now to invest, when.