Gold, per Martin Armstrong, looks OK, at cusp of breaking out, and I reckon good-enough
Water warm
SOCRATES PREMIUM ANALYSISTHE SOCRATES PREMIUM OVERVIEW COMMENTARY, SPDR GOLD SHARES AS OF THE CLOSE OF Wed. Feb. 16, 2022: SPDR Gold Shares opened above the previous high and closed above it as well warning of a bullish posture right now. This market is above all our indicators at this time reflecting it is moving higher over recent activity. The overall oscillator position is also turning positive at this time and the market remains above the normal trading range envelope. It closed today at 17486 and is trading up about 2.28% for the year from last year's settlement of 17096.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during November 2021. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.
The last major low took place during 2015 which was 7 years ago. There is a very good probability that this year will form at least a temporary high being up seven years.
Our next daily target is Thursday February 17th. However, our next daily target of Thursday February 17th is also within our target Weekly Array target of 02/14/2022. This also falls within the next target on our Monthly Array will beFebruary. Looking beyond the next key Monthly turning point in the Array we come to May which is a Panic Cycle suggesting that will perhaps become the next target thereafter.
ECM COMMENTARY
There are 25 days until the next ECM target, which is Sun. Mar. 13, 2022. A high forming on this precise target will warn of a correction. However, a low would imply a rally thereafter. The last high was November 2021, 2 months ago. The last major high was August 2020, 17 months ago. We could see an end goal form with this turning point in 2024 producing a significant event. The last event was a high formed on Mon. Feb. 14, 2022 as we are heading into the target in the next 27 days ahead.
OUR CURRENCY CORRELATION MODELS
The SPDR Gold Shares did make a high in conjunction with the British pound on 08/01 yet in nominal terms the last high was created on 08/01 whereas the high in Australian dollar took place on 12/01, a high in the Canadian dollar was established on 09/01, a high in the Japanese yen was established on 01/01, a high in the Swiss franc was established on 01/01, a high in the Euro was established on 10/01, and a high in the Chinese yuan was 02/01.
In terms of a Basket of Currencies, we see that here this market has declined while in nominal terms, it has rallied. In international terms, we have a divergence whereby this market last reached a high in nominal terms on 08/01 after the high in terms of a basket of currencies which came on 07/01 implying that this immediate rally is purely in domestic terms.
WEEKLY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE
the week of February 14th, that is reinforced by also a Directional Change Target. However, we also see that there is another Directional Change due in the next session and then the session thereafter warning this is a choppy period ahead with the opposite trend implied thereafter into the week of February 21st which is a Directional Change. However, a break of this current week's trading range of 17500 - 17239 would warn of a possible cycle inversion given we have a target this week. There are 5 Weekly Directional Change targets starting from the week of February 7th to the week of February 21st suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Weeks. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.
We are approaching the next ECM Weekly target due Thu. Mar. 10, 2022.
MONTHLY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE
February with the opposite trend implied thereafter into March. However, a break of this current month's trading range of 17500 - 16703 would warn of a possible cycle inversion given we have a target this month. We have Monthly Directional Change targets due January, August, and December. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.
We closed the previous month at 17096 after making a new low down one month from the high established back in November 2021 during 2021 at 17467. So far, we have not elected any Monthly Bearish Reversals from that high. Technically, the market is trading below our projected resistance level which stands at 16936. Immediately, the market is somewhat neutral on our monthly indicating range models which has moved down from the previous month yet is still somewhat positive.
MONTHLY TIMING TABLE FOR: 2022/01/01
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
--------------------------------------------------------
TURNING POINTS
| 36 | 60 | 32 | 36 | 40 | 52 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 24 | 40
DIRECTIONAL CHANGES
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1
PANIC CYCLES
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0
LONG-TERM EMPIRICAL
| 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1
VOLATILITY
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 2
HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
On our Tentative Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 17420. These Tentative Hypothetical Bearish Reversals would rest at 16564, 16674, 16680, and 16910, whereas a close below the previous low 16919 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Hypothetical Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Hypothetical Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Hypothetical Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.
REVERSAL SYSTEM
Relying on our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 17507 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 17060. This provides a very near-term 3.98% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 17560 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 16860. This provides a 3.98% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 17870 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 16520. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 7.55%.
WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS
Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 17061
Weekly ....... 16681
Monthly ...... 16353
Quarterly .... 15382
Yearly ....... 11286
Note: This indicator identifies the tone of the market on each time level. A positive number indicates the market is still in a bullish posture on that time level. Negative numbers indicate that the market is in a bearish posture on that time level. The indication is provided only on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level. When a major turning point is approached according to our yearly models, ECM, and timing arrays, then you can move from the higher levels to the lower to exit a market closer to the turning point.
Up to this moment in time, we have exceeded last week's high and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 16908 and an end of week closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now. Currently, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 16347 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.
As of now, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 157031 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A weekly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone. As of now, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 163661 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.
RISK FACTORS
SPDR Gold Shares Risk Table
----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---
DAILY......... 17507 | 0.12% | 17060 | 2.436% |
WEEKLY........ 17560 | 0.423% | 16860 | 3.58% |
MONTHLY....... 17870 | 2.196% | 16520 | 5.524% |
QUARTERLY..... 19450 | 11.23% | 13040 | 25.42% |
YEARLY........ 18590 | 6.313% | 14840 | 15.13% |
NORMAL DAILY TRADING ENVELOPE
Last Close Was. 17486
Envelope Top... 17348
Internal AvgL.. 17214
Internal AvgH.. 17308
Envelope Btm... 16830
Currently, the market is trading above our envelop in still a bullish position
PIVOT POINTS
Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 17372 and resistance at 17623 and 17624 for this next trading session.
DAILY PIVOT POINTS
17623
17624
17372
Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 17394 and 17394. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 17531 17532. Keep in mind that these targets can provide intraday resistance or closing resistance. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.
RECREATING TIME
Based upon our What-If Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Wed. 16th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all What-If Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are what-if reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.
[Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.]
REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
Last Closing 2022/02/16: 17486
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |
19450 | 2 | 19450 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
19320 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
18950 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
18702 | 3 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
18700 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
18550 | 1 | 18550 | 1 | 18590 | 1 |
18520 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
18470 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
18440 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
18410 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
18360 | 1 | 18360 | 1 | 18360 | 1 |
18330 | 4 | 18330 | 1 | 18330 | 1 |
18250 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
17849 | 1 | 17890 | 1 | 17870 | 1 |
17800 | 1 | 17800 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
17790 | 3 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
17760 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
17709 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
17589 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
17530 | 1 | 17560 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
17519 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
17507 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
17060 | 1 | 17470 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16980 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16930 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16820 | 1 | 16860 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16780 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16720 | 1 | 16720 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16705 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16670 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16660 | 2 | 16660 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16620 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16600 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16580 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16550 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16520 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 16520 | 1 |
16502 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16470 | 1 | 16470 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16420 | 3 | 16420 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16400 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16330 | 1 | 16370 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16220 | 1 | 16310 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16110 | 1 | 16120 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
16100 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
16050 | 1 | 16080 | 1 | 16050 | 1 |
15970 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
15740 | 1 | 15740 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
15703 | 2 | 15703 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
15700 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 15700 | 1 |
15440 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
15380 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
15060 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
14770 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 14770 | 1 |
14670 | 2 | 14704 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
14210 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
DAILY FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS & PERCENTAGE MOVEMENTS
Here are the Fibonacci Percentage Retracements from the previous HIGH at 17500
23% | 13370
38% | 10815
61% | 6685
78% | 3745
Fibonacci Percentage Golden Ratio Movements:
3% | 2022/02/17
5% | 2022/02/21
8% | 2022/02/24
13% | 2022/03/03
21% | 2022/03/15
34% | 2022/04/01
55% | 2022/05/02
89% | 2022/06/17
WEEKLY FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS & PERCENTAGE MOVEMENTS
Here are the Fibonacci Percentage Retracements from the previous HIGH at 17420
23% | 13309
38% | 10766
61% | 6654
78% | 3728
Fibonacci Percentage Golden Ratio Movements:
3% | 2022/02/28
5% | 2022/03/14
8% | 2022/04/04
13% | 2022/05/09
21% | 2022/07/04
34% | 2022/10/03
55% | 2023/02/27
89% | 2023/10/23 |
