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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas M. who wrote (10996)	2/8/1998 9:58:00 AM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 95453

Someone earlier asked what could be used as a leading indicator that the sector was heading south. I can tell you one that will likely work. The price and/or availablity of second hand rigs. As long as all the drilling contractors are buyers and there are almmost zero sellers of second hand rigs, then I think you can count on continued strength. On the other hand, if you start to see rig owners become sellers, buyers start drying up and second hand prices start to weaken, then I would bet on the beginning of the end of the cycle. As long as rig owners see strong and continued demand for rigs they WILL NOT be sellers of the equipment. (There are special circumstances and situations, of course.) It is when the rig owners (drillers) start to see a slack off in demand that is REAL and expected to continue that they will start selling rigs to cash in on the high market values. (Or, in other words, to cash OUT.) The European owners will be the first to sell as they have more of a "trading" mentality. American owners will be the last to sell as they have more of an "industrial" mentality. How do you follow this indicator? Very difficult for Joe Trader to grasp the offshore rig Sale & Purchase market. So you guys, and Barbara's, are very lucky to have His Bigness, The Dog of Greatness, Maxi-Dog and soon to be the former Jumbo-Dog, right smack in the middle of the offshore rig brokering business. None of the analysts or soothsayers ever mention this market or know anything about it. In fact there are only about eight people in the world that professionally do this business (counting His Bigness). What I may do is create some sort of used rig price index. I could send this out on a periodic press release and maybe drum up some publicity for Maxi-Dog...just a thought. My Bitch (dog talk) is going for some "body contouring" this week, so I will have to hang at the Dog House to tend to her. The next week is when I jump back in the biz and will do my best to report to you guys from the front. I may relay messages via the Wedge. Consider any words from him to be just as if they were barked by the Big Dog himself. Ok...how about a contest...exactly what kind of dog IS the Big Dog? Any ideas? (Be nice now.) Plus, who can guess what type of actual 4-legged dog lives at the Dog Pound with His Bigness? (Wedge you are exempt from this part of the contest...and no telling others.)