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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mang Cheng who wrote (13821)	2/8/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

To Mang and All: This is my first post on this thread, I was wondering where you think 3Com stock is likely to go over the next year or so, and why. I have been holding shares for about a year now, and so far have lost money on the investment. I am considering selling some or all of my shares at this time. It seems to me that there are two negatives for 3Com. The first is that the competition is getting bigger as time goes on. They are competing with Cisco and Intel already, and I understand that Compaq has an interest in networking as well. Even with the Palm Pilot they are up against Microsoft. The odds always seem to favor the big guy in the technology arena (examples MFST, INTC, AMAT, CSCO). The second is that they are still ironing out the loose ends in the merger with US Robotics, although this is hopefully a short term problem. On the positive side, I will start by referring to a recent cover story in Barrons "The Future is 3Com". If my memory serves me, this article mainly pointed out that 3Com is well positioned to benefit from the expected big sales of cable modems with its US Robotics retail distribution network. Another recent development is the Intel/Compaq/Microsoft agreement with some phone companies to push DSL modems. My understanding is that 3Com is a part of this alliance, and is likely to benefit. Another recent positive is the 56K standard being finally established. And finally, I have the impression that the CEO of 3Com is very competent. Part of my uncertainty about whether to sell the stock is my lack of understanding about the tenfold rise in USRX stock over a two year period from mid 1994. 3Com also did very well during this period. I imagine that the USRX increase was mainly due to the explosion of the internet and corresponding demand for modem upgrades. The internet growth is still there, and modem sales should be strong as well over the next few years. However, I wonder if things have fundamentally changed such that 3Com will languish, due for example to the intense competition that it now faces. Any thoughts on the above are much appreciated. Thanks in advance, John