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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (184180)	3/1/2022 3:23:58 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218030

Weakly chart for gold... suggests not weakly too much longer... Prior chart based guessing suggested "March"... but more "end of March"... Recent market behavior is more positive, earlier than prior suggestions indicated might occur, and with significant and increasing volatility... if not as much as in other things, still... While (many / some) larger mining stocks are outperforming other stocks, the many / most of the junior mining stocks / explorers... are still exploring deeper by testing lower chart depths... But the chart patterns show "suppression" trades perhaps paired with "accumulation" by smart money... The juniors typically lag gold and silver and the larger stocks in a bull market... often significantly... which gives a chance for a second bite at the golden delicious apple when gold finally does move... and the mining companies quit playing possum... when the market proves itself responsive to "value" (in gold) when focused on messaging re relative performance being positive, again... Silver typically lags gold, too... but may not this time... as silver has only retraced half what gold has recovered in the last year... The silver charts do show a few "oddities"... all beginning the second week of February... atypical things... straight lines that leave no room for interpretation... while silver stocks are being punished mercilessly for having had the price of the product they sell rising... Hard to explain the share price of HL as anything other than... "that's not right" Charts show gold has broken out of the recent, smaller, trading channel it has occupied since June... and is now sitting on top of the upper bolly on a weekly chart and riding it higher. There's still not much to get overly excited about there... until the trend violates the larger pattern... a trading channel defined since Feb of 2020... between 1700 and 2100. When gold hits 2075... it will be worth noting how that milestone relates to the momentum in the trade. We may be starting the next leg higher in a resumption of the long term bull market... but, kind of hard to prove that when you're still languishing below a prior peak made two years ago... Not quite there yet... which will require gold's breakout move to be a bit more... decisive... But, it's in good position to sustain the move just by riding the weekly bolly higher... for now. I would not be surprised to see gold hit 2100 "soon" and then drop back to consolidate at 1900 for a few months... before suddenly resuming the up trend with... more vigor... likely to 2400 or >2400 by year end mostly depending on the driver of the trend... But, we do live in interesting times... Of course... all still conditional upon foolish people avoiding doing seriously foolish things... even though that happening usually works out pretty well for gold and its owners... ? Given you'd prefer "better choices" being made... gold going higher is at least a consolation prize that favors those who are prepared... to be rewarded for others making bad choices. Given that view... why gold is not unobtanium already is a bit of a mystery... as the current crop of "world leaders" are... hmmm.. not very impressive.... My expectation is that it is not current events as much as it is long term residuals of historical effects in aggregate that are driving changes now... but, only just as prior recognition of the impact of those artifacts of prior monetary policy buffoonery are finally being "resolved"... now we have the buffoons running off with the goal posts, again. That shift occurring,again, right at the same time as impacts in current events unfold... only makes that change in the dynamic far more impactful... or, more "useful"... to some of us... The market we have inherited is one that is well acclimated to the last few decades of policy abuse... and very well conditioned to follow the herd, as directed... which thus requires that there needs to be a fairly clear momo trade to move a market... as the herd needs to be able to see the movement to follow it... And, that will take some time to develop, I expect... but, you can see the change that is occurring now... if you look for it... Still, based only on recent "pattern"... would expect another two weeks of weakly... before potentially becoming a bit less weakly... in gold. And then... maybe start seeing a bit more verticality in the charts... before the end of the month ? Which would still be moving "early" versus prior outlook... so, still a lot of wiggle room out to the end of March... with events of the day also making it hard to determine if "early" movement now is "early" at all...or if what we see now is only driven by events and occurring well prior to our even "getting there"... as far as the chart factors. But, soon enough, there should be synergies occurring... rather than puzzles. That timing also syncs the chart expectations to the more typical annual seasonality in the gold market... a bit early... with my guess being there is a bit of front-running going on now... by the usual suspects... addressing price re those who buy gold this time of year because they use it as the material they fabricate wares from. As a gift... gold's value is only enhanced by it experiencing a rising market... so, rising prices for gold generally will mean more, not less, demand for fabrication... as it regains prior luster... And those whose profit depends on the prices they pay as well as the price they sell gold... also know how to read a chart... I have noticed quite a bit less discussion of "great resets" lately... ? If this is what they had in mind... I suspect they'd have had many fewer willing followers over at the World Economic Forum... as there's not much that's "great" about the direction that "current events" I see unfolding appear to be heading. I'd guess that might mean gold "higher" in the next two to four weeks, still... but, perhaps, still not really meaning it, or feeling it, until April... when others in the market start buying those things that have already moved up... as other things begin proving more persistent than expected in moving down... ? For now... the market seems genuinely entertained by Ukrainians stubbornness making Putin look foolish... But, few seem to be focusing on the costs and consequences of the choices being made, now... much less the growing risks... even as there were risks aplenty already being realized even before this. Recent events will do nothing other than amplify and then add more weight to those problems that were already burdening us and not being solved... but mostly ignored... while persistently expanding on their own with neglect... while the world looked on... and dithered, determinedly. If you don't understand what's causing the problem you face... it appears insoluble. And it is a very human reaction to simply decide... "it should probably just go away on its own"... ? But, wishing problems away... is not much of a plan... However, if you do understand the origins of our current problems... you know full well they are not "transitory" and they will not solve themselves... without first imposing an actual "correction" of prior errors... the lack of which is at the origin of the problem ? Inflation is not going to cooperate and melt away with the arrival of spring... ? And, nothing going on in the world today will alter that reality... but clearly will amplify it... while those who are (ir)responsible for such things... appear merely glad for the distraction that is, at least for now, removing them from the spotlight... and, otherwise, is providing excuses to opt to continue dithering... Then... in "the market"... comparing weakly charts... its easy to see the inflection in gold in May 2021... that centers the trade contained in the period from Feb to June. That point exactly coincides with a similar center point of inflection on the increasingly weakly SPY chart... which, after that same point in April/ May of 2021 has appeared almost unchanged in its performance... except... for a trend change in a series of lower highs and lower lows, continuing now, in the Rate of Change.... which has sustained the new downward trend since May... and, since January... has crossed that line making "change" very decidedly negative. I may need to grab a few more SPY puts with short expiry dates... if the market moves higher tomorrow...