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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HoodBuilder who wrote (4743)	2/8/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

RE: "Come April when we see our next round of earnings revisions and disappointments I'll be on the short side." Just out of curiosity, were you short in September 1997? Thanks, I2

To: HoodBuilder who wrote (4743)	2/8/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 10921

Correct me if I'm wrong here but when UTEK announced they were pretty much at or close to the bottom this go-around: 19 or so I think, KLIC was at around 19 as well (just a bit over the 16 - 17 range it hit as a low). AMAT on the other hand is now at about 36. I think AMAT's low this go around (i.e., a few weeks ago) was about 26. So unlike the prior 2 cases AMAT is around 40% above its' low - caught up in some sanguine thinking that things are not all that bad in the sector. I'm not so sanguine however and would hedge my bets at this time. If wrong there will be opportunities in the months ahead. I think the front-end guys will be singing the blues over the next few months but I need to do more research to establish if this is true or not.

To: HoodBuilder who wrote (4743)	2/9/1998 10:29:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

Someone said something about earnings estimate and whisper numbers. I've noticed that a lot of analysts seem to have lowered recommendations while keeping earnings estimates either the same, or relatively even. Now, this made some sense for the early-reporting companies, but not for AMAT, which is almost certainly going to feel the shortfall this quarter. I don't see how AMAT is going to be able to do anything but miss estimates, admit to shrinking backlog, and poor-mouth the coming quarter. I really think, as I've said before, that they might announce some layoffs. I'm still holding 2/3 of the SFAM I bought, and might just ride it through the storm, but I'm getting out otherwise before close of business tomorrow. I sold my EGLS-- thank you Barron's! -- and I want to have some long interest, as the LAST thing I want to risk is missing the train this time, so SFAM is still my personal choice. But I'm short AMAT and going to trim down everything else. It's just a guess.