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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonyt who wrote (1107)	2/8/1998 1:54:00 PM
From: Steve Tauscher	Respond to of 2173

OFF TOPIC Hi Tonyt, I didn't wait so long- I replied immediately after I saw your message!! I don't habitually look to check messages since I only recently started posting on SI! I had yours and one from COHU thread. Thanks on the congrats. Did you see my LGNDW's going across the tape Wednesday morning at opening? (it was filled in 2 orders). I put order in at 5.125 Tuesday night and moved it to 5.5 when I saw the pre-market trades. I'll post you in LGNDland when I take my next position in LGNDW (next time on margin!) so you can taunt me properly on LGND's moves <GGG>. I have been lurking in semi-equip land since I joined SI. Got caught up in LGND hype last year and but profited anyway and now am a little more knowledgeable thanks to many posters, especially Miljenko Zuanic. I like the objective critical thinking and balance that MZ brings to a discussion. I follow biotechs as time permits and will buy select biotechs only if a positive news release is expected within a couple quarters AND its at/near low end of 52 week trading range in case the news is not so positive. I sell on the news and then... complain when it moves up further!! <G> With LGND I was looking for panretin NDA news release within 4-5 months (not 1Q) and got caught by surprise by the move to above 13 on Friday morning. Couldn't resist cashing out. How is your trading going? Did you buy AMLN or VICL? What would be good entry and exit points for each in your opinion? I'm interested in VICL after one of your posts. I'm also studying ISIP now that antisense technology is being validated by PIII results. Besides LGND I bought AMAT in 4Q96 at 30 (pre-split), ASYT 1Q97 at 8.5 and sold way too soon at 17.5 (went to 40+). This past January I bought and sold TERBF as TER moved from 32 to 42 and more recently I bought a small 10 contract LQPHB position at 2.875 and sold last Friday at 3.5. I left my SFAM (bought at 21) Friday at 27.625 cursing my indecision to get out at 29+ (fortunately I did get out cuz they preannounced after the close). I got friends into COHU at 30 in January. I cashed out at 44. My last trade prior to AMAT was CSCO in 1991 (heard of them? <G>) Alas, I didn't know what I had and sold in 1991 as well. Didn't trade '92-'95 because I didn't understand what was driving the overvaluations and lost interest in the market. Couldn't resist low price and valuation of AMAT in 4Q96. Hmmmm, maybe there's something to this 'buy low-sell high' thing <G>. Now I'm wary of market overvaluation but trading in select issues. Yes, like all of us I take my share of losses and grumble. My loss in 97 was a 3000 HEB position (went from 3.125 to 2.75). When do you think LGND will hit 9? I think it can with right sequence of bad biotech news, market slip and typical biotech summer. Shall we wager a bottle of wine? <GGG> I would like to buy in again for another 25% move! Good luck in your investing! Steve T. PS. Please consider a purchase of SFAM if it moves to less than 22 Monday. If institutions dump Monday (51% ownership on thin 12.7M share float) and if AMAT's forward statements this week bring down the sector and SFAM goes below book value (18 and change) I may be buying. Follow market share competition with AMAT and IPEC CMP products (AMAT CMP is a very big but underestimated risk for SFAM) and sell if AMAT is selling more CMP tools over next 2 quarters. If they survive the competition then let it ride for whenever the next semi-equip boom cycle hits (300mm in 2-4 years?) and sell when craziness sets in again (price to book >5, P/E >40). SFAM has the cash to weather a long industry downturn.