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Technology Stocks : BORL: Time to BUY! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (8991)2/8/1998 2:51:00 PM
From: TChai  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10836
 
When do you expect the stock to approach 12, 20, and 25.

Sam,

Thank you for your interest. Calling price action in TA is already dangerous enough, it's somewhat like looking into the sun. Making calls on prices and time sounds very egotistical to me. And the market is very efficient at, er, crushing egos. I don't tell the market what to do, instead I tried to listen and let the market tells me. If you listen careful enough you can hear when it's making tops or bottoms. Tops are harder to call because our greed gets in the way.

BORL is now in the strongest technical position one could have asked for. Having made successive higher tops and bottoms starting from the absolute bottom of 4+change in Oct '96, higher bottom in Jul '97 and the last higher bottom in Jan '98. As the saying goes, the third time is a charm. Having shaken out the weak hands for the last time, she will move up strongly and will literally take our breathe away.
This is the technical picture that is trying to catch up with the fundamental picture.

When the Delphi Rally of '95 was followed by the Delphi Collapse of '96 which brought the stock down to its all time low in Oct of that year, I learned my lesson the hard way of not looking enough at the fundamentals.

And fundamentally speaking, I'm still scratching my head at how they allowed Dr. LeFaivre to present Delphi, BCB and JBuilder at MS Professional Developers Conference last Sep. That was huge (or should I say HUGE just for shane :-) Then at Comdex, the God himself spoke the word 'Delphi', and I was floored. I'm still on the floor to this day! However our Scotts Valley boys did it, BI got a reprieve on life from the God himself. Perhaps, with all the generals (Anders, Gross) and soldiers they got from us, there are voices in Redmond loud enough for the God to spare BI. Or perhaps, as each company is moving into the enterprises, they need each other. Or maybe Yocam had a man-to-God talk when BI filed the lawsuit on unfair competition last year. In any event, this fundamental aspect alone tells me that we won't have the Delphi Collapse from 20 down to 4+ again, but the market still remembers that. Ha! dream on.

Now if the Yocam Rally goes on to test 25, we might see it break that too. Only time will tell :-)



To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (8991)2/8/1998 8:27:00 PM
From: David Miller  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10836
 
That is because BI is fundamentally a stronger company than it was in '96.

When in 1996?

At the end of their financial year-end in March that year they had i) just declared a $14.3m profit for the year (on revenues averaging >$50m per quarter), ii) $75m in cash and near cash, iii) a $255m balance sheet with $172m stockholders equity and iv) 31m shares out there.

Compares with end FY97 i) $4.4m profit (for the nine month year, on revenues 20% per quarter lower) ii) $122m in current assets, iii) a $230m balance sheet with $107m stockholders equity and iv) 45m shares out there.

Which balance sheet/P&L combination is the stronger?

david