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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Qone0 who wrote (52836)	2/25/2022 10:06:44 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97597

TA is just analysis of the price action. Analysis is never a law of nature but one or two steps removed from it. As an analogy, we may observe the fall and bounce back of an object and analyze it to come to some conclusions about gravity and elasticity. But those conclusions are not the laws of nature. They our assumptions about the laws of nature. The proof is that over time the shape of the fallen object changes and it will not bounce the same. Nor is the gravity and air resistance the same as we move further from the earth. The same goes for the stocks. No company is the same as it was 20 years ago (their shape has changed) and neither is their operating environment (they've moved away from their old orbit). So when you look at a 20 year chart, you cannot pretend as if you are dealing with the same entity just because it has the same ticker symbol. This problem does not exist when you are daytrading or swing trading because the company is is most likely the same. But when you are looking at the stock ticker over 20 years, you are not dealing with the same entity. Finally, there are two parts to trading/investing: psychology and fundamentals. Over the short term psychology wins. Contrarian systems such as harmonic trading have an there. But as your timeframe gets closer to business and economic cycles, the fundamentals win.