SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: arun gera who wrote (184426)2/25/2022 12:49:52 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 218068
 
Would not characterize what Victoria did say as <<Russian disinformation>>, and she definitely did utter, ‘phuck the EU’ with all that can be imputed and is implied, specifically, ‘phuck the EU’

Message 33728055

Given so, Germans and French and Italians remember, and they must know what the history of discussions to expand NATO eastward, and are living the consequences of what they either could not or did not stop.

EU appears to be putting the foot down and without boots at this juncture, at the cusp of being bum-rushed into a war urged on by folks living quite far away and also kept energized by Russian energy.

But, yes, information must be verified.

Application of logic is, arguably, easier, and when done right obviates need to verify info feed.

As to info, besides live streaming Message 33727927 , we can always read the Time magazine



time.com

How Open Source Intelligence Became the World's Window Into the Ukraine Invasion

In a grainy cell-phone video shared widely on Twitter early on Thursday morning, plumes of black smoke billow out of a burning vehicle on the tarmac of what appears to be a military airstrip. The heavy breathing of the man holding the camera is audible over the sounds of broken glass and rubble crunching underfoot.

The video, which was originally shared on a Ukrainian Telegram channel, was verified and uploaded to Twitter by Thomas van Linge, a 25 year-old based in Amsterdam. The video, van Linge wrote online, depicted “utter destruction” after an explosion at the military airfield in Lutsk, western Ukraine, just 90 kilometers away from the border with Poland. It appeared to be some of the day’s first evidence that the Russian assault on Ukraine was confined not just to the country’s south and east, but military targets across the country, even those just miles away from a border with a NATO member-state.

Another video shared by van Linge on Thursday morning purportedly showed Russian military vehicles advancing north into Ukraine from Crimea. This time, the source of the footage was a public-facing CCTV camera trained on a road leading off the peninsula.

Read more: Here’s What We Know So Far About Russia’s Military Operation in Ukraine

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolded in the early hours of Thursday morning, van Linge and hundreds of other OSINT researchers pored over the thousands of videos emerging from the country. The acronym is short for “open source intelligence,” a field of social media analysis that over the last decade has emerged from obscurity into a central feature of modern war reporting, as social media and smartphone access have allowed videos, photos, and other data from war-zones around the world to proliferate. Together, via a loosely-organized community mostly based on Twitter, these researchers work together to verify the location of videos, piecing together the first public details of a rapidly-changing situation on the front line of Europe’s most volatile military conflict in nearly eight decades. Online, in real time, they share these pieces of evidence with the world, rivaling established newsrooms and defense analysts in a parallel effort to reveal what is happening on the ground.

“On Twitter, there’s a lot of cooperation. People share footage, geolocate it, try to identify the types of tanks, armed vehicles, that kind of stuff,” van Linge said in an interview on Thursday morning. “Everyone is doing their own part to get as much information out there as we can.” Van Linge says he was able to verify that the videos from Lutsk were likely genuine, because the airstrip and buildings were recognizable and could be compared against older footage.

Read More: How Putin’s Denial of Ukraine’s Statehood Rewrites History

The picture researchers are seeing, with the benefit of the birds-eye-view from OSINT, is of a fast-changing military situation in Ukraine. “From around 5am local time until [11am], the videos were mostly missile strikes, smoke clouds, the sounds of shelling and stuff,” van Linge says. “Since [midday local time], it has actually developed to footage of Russian forces on the move across parts of Ukraine—they’ve broken out of Crimea, they’ve broken through front-lines near Kharkiv, there’s also reports of fighting south of Belarus, [and] around Donetsk.”

OSINT analysts are acutely aware of the risks that their work may be playing into the Kremlin’s hands, and experts have raised concerns that Russian actors may try to seed false reports of military activities in order to encourage Ukrainian surrender. The internet in Ukraine is currently still broadly accessible, indicating that the Kremlin does not necessarily want to suppress footage depicting their Blitzkrieg attack. “I guess the Russians might consider it beneficial as an intimidation tactic,” van Linge says. “They want to show their striking capabilities.”

But the news isn’t all good for Russia. Some footage indicates that the most fierce fighting so far has been around Kharkiv, in the north-east of Ukraine, according to Kyle Glen, the co-founder of Conflict News, a popular OSINT-focused online news platform. Early on Thursday, Glen shared a graphic video—apparently filmed near Kharkiv—depicting what he said were burning Russian tanks and a dead Russian soldier.

“There’s a definite possibility that Russia wants this information to come out,” Glen says. “On the other hand, in the Kharkiv region they are definitely not doing as well as they had hoped—and there are a lot of videos of dead Russian soldiers and destroyed Russian equipment. They’re not going to be happy about stuff like that coming out. If we start seeing more and more evidence of the Russian offensive not going so well, maybe we’ll start to see them crack down on the internet a little bit more.”


People wait in a traffic jam as they leave the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine, after Russian President Vladimir Putin authorised a military operation in eastern Ukraine, Feb. 24

Antonio Bronic—Reuters

OSINT techniques have also allowed sleuths to pick holes in Kremlin rhetoric. On Monday, researchers deduced that a video of Putin meeting with his security council to discuss Ukraine was not broadcast live, as Moscow had claimed, but several hours earlier—a fact given away by closeup analyses of the wristwatches of several participants.

In the Twitter group chats where OSINT analysts share videos and help each other verify material, an informal code of conduct has emerged, according to Glen and van Linge. Some researchers have said they will not share graphic videos of dead bodies. Others have decided to keep a lid on any videos that reveal Ukrainian troop movements. In cases where researchers accidentally share false or misleading information, researchers tend to delete their tweets and issue corrections. Much of the time, the collegiate atmosphere helps prevent mistakes before they happen. Overnight, Glen observed two debunks on a Twitter group chat in real-time, before anybody posted the videos to public-facing social media accounts. One video, depicting an explosion in the dead of night, turned out to be from Yemen, not Ukraine. Another video that purported to show a Russian helicopter attack against a Ukrainian base turned out to actually be from Afghanistan.

These informal ethical guidelines and verification techniques have been honed over the last decade. Van Linge and Glen both started their work in 2014, during the Ukrainian revolution and the Syrian civil war. In Syria, OSINT information helped to link deadly gas attacks on the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and undermine the U.S. military’s claims that its airstrikes were hardly killing any civilians. But there is a sense in the OSINT community that something about this invasion is different. “OSINT was a lot more niche in the Syrian civil war,” Glen says. “There was a lot of really gritty technical stuff, like analyzing shell craters. Whereas it seems the community in the buildup to this [invasion of Ukraine] has been a lot more accessible. It’s not difficult to understand if someone posts a video of a Russian convoy of vehicles and can demonstrate how they know where that convoy is.”

“OSINT first and foremost is a collaborative effort,” Glen says. “A great thing about OSINT is that when you’re posting the evidence, you’re posting how you came to it. It allows people to have a lot more trust in what you’re doing—and maybe things get taken a little more seriously.”

More Must-Read Stories From TIME

Here's What We Know So Far About Russia's Assault on Ukraine Putin Wants Revenge Not Just on Ukraine But on the U.S. and Its AlliesPhotographs of Ukraine Under AttackThe Russian Assault on Ukraine Poses Huge Risks for the Rest of Europe and the WorldHow Open Source Intelligence Became the World's Window Into the Ukraine InvasionWhy Sanctions on Russia Won't WorkColumn: How the West Can Stop Putin
Write to Billy Perrigo at billy.perrigo@time.com.

SHARE THIS STORY

Sent from my iPad



To: arun gera who wrote (184426)3/27/2022 9:03:25 AM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
marcher

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218068
 
Re <<mind grab>>

Going about as expected, so far okay … certainly better than what was a bit earlier

Perhaps the gentler Chinese traditional medicine can work more efficaciously than modern Western medicine :0))) You know, CoronaVac vs BioNTech :0))))

Very good of Team USA doing all that basic research we know as mineral exploration, but a trillion dollars over 20-years a bit over the top by a tad, but never mind, all for a good cause. I mean, after all, either the electorates were asleep over the 20-years or were, in aggregate, okay with money spent that way.

Cannot make this tale up. Puzzle why there are no Congressional hearings and witness calling. There must be a lot of witnesses over the years.

2022 election issue? Who lost _________ [fill in blank]? Where did the money go? Why?

In the meantime Team China doing good heritage-preservation work. At the moment Iran, Russia and Turkey all appear to be quite busy, along w/ USA, EU, and UK. None ready to take on responsibility of Afghanistan.

Now, multiple countries, including Iran, Russia and Turkey are looking to invest, filling the vacuum left in the wake of the chaotic U.S. withdrawal.




bloomberg.com

With Eye to China Investment, Taliban Now Preserve Buddhas

March 27, 2022, 7:16 PM GMT+8



A projected image of a Buddha statue in Bamiyan that had been destroyed by the Taliban in 2001.

Photographer: AFP/AFPMes Aynak, Afghanistan (AP) -- The ancient Buddha statues sit in serene meditation in the caves carved into the russet cliffs of rural Afghanistan. Hundreds of meters below lies what is believed to be the world’s largest deposit of copper.

Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are pinning their hopes on Beijing to turn that rich vein into revenue to salvage the cash-starved country amid crippling international sanctions.

The fighters standing guard by the rocky hillside may once have considered destroying the terracotta Buddhas. Two decades ago when the Islamic hard-line Taliban were first in power, they sparked world outrage by blowing up gigantic Buddha statues in another part of the country, calling them pagan symbols that must be purged.

But now they are intent on preserving the relics of the Mes Aynak copper mine. Doing so is key to unlocking billions in Chinese investment, said Hakumullah Mubariz, the Taliban head of security at the site, peering into the remnants of a monastery built by first-century Buddhist monks.

“Protecting them is very important to us and the Chinese,” he said.

Previously, Mubariz commanded a Taliban combat unit in the surrounding mountains battling with U.S.-backed Afghan forces. When those troops capitulated last year, his men rushed to secure the site. “We knew it would be important for the country,” he said.

The Taliban’s spectacular reversal illustrates the powerful allure of Afghanistan’s untapped mining sector. Successive authorities have seen the country’s mineral riches, estimated to be worth $1 trillion, as the key to a prosperous future, but none have been able to develop them amid the continual war and violence. Now, multiple countries, including Iran, Russia and Turkey are looking to invest, filling the vacuum left in the wake of the chaotic U.S. withdrawal.

But Beijing is the most assertive. At Mes Aynak, it could become the first major power to take on a large-scale project in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, potentially redrawing Asia’s geopolitical map.

TOP PRIORITY

In 2008, the administration of Hamid Karzai signed a 30-year contract with a Chinese joint venture called MCC to extract high-grade copper from Mes Aynak. Studies show the site holds up to 12 million tons of the mineral.

But the project got tied up in logistical and contract problems, and it never got past some initial test shafts before it ground to a halt when Chinese staff left in 2014 because of continued violence.

Mere months after the Taliban seized Kabul in August, consolidating power over the country, the group’s newly installed acting Minister for Mining and Petroleum Shahbuddin Dilawar urged his staff to re-engage Chinese state-run companies.

Ziad Rashidi, the ministry’s director of foreign relations, approached the consortium made up by MCC, China Metallurgical Group Corporation and Jiangxi Copper Ltd. Dilawar has had two virtual meetings with MCC in the last six months, according to company and ministry officials. He urged them to return to the mine, terms unchanged from the 2008 contract.

A technical committee from MCC is due in Kabul in the coming weeks to address the remaining obstacles. Relocating the artifacts is key. But MCC is also seeking to renegotiate terms, particularly to reduce taxes and slash the 19.5% royalty rate by nearly half, the percentage owed to the government per ton of copper sold.

“Chinese companies see the current situation as ideal for them. There is a lack of international competitors and a lot of support from the government side,” Rashidi said.

China's ambassador to Afghanistan has said talks are ongoing, but nothing more.

Acquiring rare minerals is key for Beijing to maintain its standing as a global manufacturing powerhouse. While stopping short of recognizing the Taliban government, China has stood out from the international community by calling for the unfreezing of Afghan assets and has kept its diplomatic mission running in Kabul.

For Afghanistan, the contract at Mes Aynak could bring in $250-300 million per year to state revenues, a 17% increase, as well as $800 million in fees over the contract’s length, according to government and company officials. That’s a significant sum as the country grapples with widespread poverty, exacerbated by financial shortfalls after the Biden administration froze Afghan assets and international organizations halted donor funds. Some has since resumed.

GRAVEYARD OF EMPIRES

At Mes Aynak, a 2,000-year-old Buddhist city sits uncomfortably alongside a potential economic engine. Afghanistan’s tumultuous modern history has gotten in the way of both exploring the archaeology and developing the mines.

Discovered in the 1960s by French geologists, the site was believed to have been an important stop along the Silk Road from the early centuries AD.

After the Soviet invasion in the late 1970s, Russians dug tunnels to investigate the copper deposit; the cavernous bore holes are still visible. These were later used as an al-Qaida hideout, and at least one was bombed by the U.S. in 2001.

Looters then pillaged many antiquities from the site. Still, archaeologists who came in 2004 managed a partial excavation, uncovering remnants of a vast complex, including four monasteries, ancient copper workshops and a citadel. It became clear the area had been a major Buddhist settlement, a crossroads for traders coming from the west, and pilgrims from afar, even China.

To the shock of the non-Taliban technocrats in his own ministry, Dilawar is committed to saving the site and told MCC’s director in Beijing it was an important part of Afghanistan’s history, according to two officials present in one virtual meeting.

He dismissed open-pit mining schemes that would raze the site entirely. The alternative option of underground mining was judged too pricey by MCC. The Culture Ministry has been tasked with presenting a plan to relocate the relics, most likely to the Kabul Museum.

“We have already transferred some (artifacts) to the capital, and we are working to transfer the rest, so the mining work can begin,” Dilawar told The Associated Press.

While the ministry is optimistic a deal can be reached, MCC officials are cautious and pragmatic.

They did not speak to the AP on record, citing sensitivities around the talks happening while international sanctions still prohibit dealings with the Taliban.

They expressed concerns over the feasibility of other contractual obligations, including building a railway to the Pakistan border at Torkham, a coal-fired power plant, and community amenities such as a hospital and schools.

Another issue is how to compensate residents of three villages near Mes Aynak cleared out a decade ago.

Mullah Mera Jan, a 70-year-old local elder, said he is still waiting for funds promised to him by ministry officials after being forced out of his village of Wali Baba.

Still, he too hopes mining will start soon. Villagers were promised 3,000-4,000 direct and 35,000 indirect jobs. The men from his village are on top of the hiring list.

OPEN FOR BUSINESS

In the ministry’s labyrinthine halls, hopeful investors stand in line, documents ready to stake their claim of Afghanistan’s untapped mineral riches, including large iron deposits, precious stones and -- potentially -- lithium.

Knocking on Rashidi’s office door these days are Russians, Iranians, Turks and of course, the Chinese.

All are “in a great hurry to invest,” he said. Chinese interest is “extraordinary,” he said. Rashidi has also reached out to China’s CNPCI to revamp an oil contract to explore blocks in Amu Darya near the Turkmenistan border, terminated in 2018.

Dozens of small-scale contracts have been handed out local investors, many of whom have joint ventures with international companies, mainly Chinese and Iranian.

Ministry revenues have increased exponentially, from 110 million afghanis ($1.2 million) in the year preceding the Taliban takeover, to $6 billion afghanis ($67 million) in the six months since the Taliban assumed power, according to documents seen by the AP. Most of that, however, appears to be from more aggressive taxing, as the Taliban merged their informal tax economy with that of the government. Apart from coal, it not clear if actual mining production has increased.

Ironically, it was the Taliban that hindered work in Mes Aynak for over a decade.

An MCC official recalled how the road leading to the mine was laden with IEDs targeting Afghan forces and NATO allies. An entire Afghan regiment guarded Chinese engineers at the site compound. Mubariz, now the security chief, said he remembered watching them from the mountains where he plotted attacks.

The MCC official said that when his Taliban hosts told him they had restored safety so work could resume, he replied in jest, “Wasn’t it you who was attacking us?”

The men, machine-guns slung around their necks, laughed too.

Sent from my iPad