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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: POKERSAM who wrote (36944)	2/26/2022 1:53:59 PM
From: Clam digger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41021

Of course it is not outrageous. The question is, is that accurate and if so why? Or even likely?

To: POKERSAM who wrote (36944)	2/26/2022 11:22:15 PM
From: northam	1 Recommendation Recommended By Goldilocks Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41021

Here is the problem: During the period 1938 to 1944 was a SPX Yearly Bear Cycle (declined 59.99%) that lasted 7 years, the low was put in during the 5th year, it was followed by a Yearly Bull Cycle that lasted 30 years and gained 1529.72% Then 1975 was another SPX Yearly Bear Cycle that only lasted a year (declined 43.61%), it was followed by another Yearly Bull Cycle that lasted 33 years and gained 2195.83% Then the next Yearly Bear Cycle was 2008, it only lasted a year (declined 57.69%), we are now in the 13th Year of this Yearly Bull Cycle which has so far gained 622.66%, this Yearly Bull Cycle is currently projected to continue another 11 years to 2033 with a projected high of 10331.27 or if it confirms a Yearly Super Bull Cycle it could continue to 2041 with a projected high of 15308.39, if it ends in 2033, then we could see a 25% decline in the next Yearly Bear Cycle down to 7890.57 or if it ends in 2041 we could see a 30% decline down to 10489.77. The current ATH is 4818.62, so over the next 11 years we could see an average yearly gain of around 500 pts, 2021 was a gain of over 1000 pts, 2020 gained over 400 pts, 2019 gained over 700 pts, 2018 lost less than 100 pts, 2017 gained over 400 pts, 2016 gained around 200 pts, 2015 was pretty even, 2014 gained 200 pts, 2013 gained 400 pts, 2012 gained around 200 pts. So over the last 10 years there has been a net gain of 3400, an average of 340 per year. Over the last 3 years there has been a net gain of 2100 pts, an average of 700 pts per year. So far this year the SPX is down around 400 pts, the SPX is due for a down year, maybe a loss of 200 pts. A SPX Monthly Bear Cycle is possible next month with a projected low of 4210.88, which will reset the Monthly Bull Cycle projections above ATHs If the SPX drops below 4018.06 by the end of March, then there might be a chance for a SPX Quarterly Bear Cycle during the 2nd Quarter (Apr-Jun) with a projected low of 3812.51, which would reset the Quarterly Bull Cycle projections well above current ATHs. The Quarterly Bull Cycle is currently projected to continue another 4 quarters (12 months), the projected high of 7849.98 is due 9/30/22, I currently don't see it hitting that projection by then, but who knows. Bottom line: I don't see a path to 2200, the next Yearly Bear Cycle is currently not projected until 2034 with a current projected low of 2377.92 based on the current high of 4818.62, however, if the Yearly Bull Cycle reaches it's current projected high of 10331.27, then the Yearly Bear Cycle projected low will be higher at 7890.57, or if the Yearly Super Bull Cycle is confirmed with a projected high of 15308.39, then the Yearly Bear Cycle low will be even higher at 10489.77. Shorting this market for very long could be quite costly. But if you happen to be around after 2033 it could be a major CLIFF DIVE.