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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Getcher who wrote (16928)	2/9/1998 2:22:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Getcher- Thanks for you letter- we have been able to keep this thread on the right side of market so far so good- I think we have no big number of 'masses' tuning in but atleast what I see from "idea' thread traffic whenever we post any new announcement we do get 200-300 strikes within 24 hours that is good enough a volume for a thread like ours- predominantly I am grateful that the biggest beneficiary of this thread is my own performance one is motivated by so called 'accountability' thought and any ideas posted are in the background of this small thought- I think by trading without a pseudonym I have helped first consistency with my trading and second 'responsibility' without these two factors I would not have done justice to my cause of exchanging 'ideas'- this thread has been more helpful to me than anyone else because it is nice to see your philosophy in print before you executes it is really not free rather I am benefiting a lot. On your question of tight range I think this market has traded in a tight range since August- between 890 and 990- it was like habit forming range the real break was a classical trap where top of 990 was again considered as a 500 points slip to 7500 drop on DOW- on Friday before this break above 992 I could see models all over claiming a 500 points drop finally on Monday all hell broke loose for 'shorts' and range was definitely taken out- so for tight range allow me to disagree with you we had rather roo long a tight range for me any side of break now has strong possibilities like if we had broken on the down side we could have gone as low as 770= still a break of 950 is going to take us to 890 and a break of that to 770 that is the way markets major supports and resistance's has so far worked. However all said I will closely monitor 1002 now and will go short between 997 and 980 or even 967 level- on SOX I will like 320 to be tested before 280 and if 320 is taken out we may see a decent run otherwise we shall be range bound between 267 and 292- I am not going to suggest a short at 1050 April- yes going for calendar spread is a good thought but frankly these are not my kind of trades- to leg out of one position will expose you to others and in volatile markets I will be rather careful- if you really want to play on resistance and support the trade would be to long the support and short the resistance with tight stop losses. INTC and TXN LSCC will be some of the stocks which may lead SOX higher I concur with you- but play the game with discipline on break of supports let the market drift don't try to call the market with too much of precision in these markets we need precision and nimbleness without being married to bull on bear philosophy. I will be in Kuwait for a few days but will be posting infrequently because the connection is too slow. It is really nice to be back here but in middle of another crisis.

To: Getcher who wrote (16928)	2/9/1998 3:45:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Getcher- I reached Kuwait last night- early morning papers contain a big government annonucement on 'measures to protect yourselve from poison gas attack' not that I was not aware of what's happening here but for me these events or President Clinton fiasco 'zipgate' are marginal issues- it is because of my believe that they are minor events that I flew in here - Saddam is a minor blip in context of markets his is a minimal impact on Oil or Oil routes so such fringe matters should be taken beyond myopic vision of pits and anyone who does that is going to successful- read the stories right and judge the impact correctly -this is good solid investing cardinal demands- as for charts keep them simple and avoid all this understanble exotic formations if exotic formations was real todays super computers would lead firms to make the best profits like Kaprov in my humble opinion Buffets and Sorros of the world will be the winners and they don't trade with exotic ununderstanble charts they do it with fundamentals.I remember the last time we met in NY we discussed this in 'Waldorf Astoria' I stil hold on th my old believe. I have always said Saddam is history like Hitler was last few gasps- the markets will be volatile when attacks start hopefully bt 17-18th according to Jerusalam Post we may see some selling in Japan and ASEA and some sympathetic selling in Wall Street but I will short on break of 997 and cover and reverse at 967- enjoy this trade the band is of little importance we tear events find truth from hype and accordingly post the direction which so far has been utter pleasure to watch as it runs with script it is simple observation and birds eye view and first hand reporting from the front lines- for me this is a minor problem and as you point out we need to keep close eye on economic fundamentals the 'inflation' ginnie not the deflation one however what an employment number we had last week-