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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (53199)	3/1/2022 10:46:57 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 97211

So let's walk through this, because I don't want to take you on the cheap. For you to win this bet, the Russian stock market (net currency effects) has to triple in 3 years or less. This would make them the best deal in the world. But wait, there's more ;) RSX has been falling like a rock and MOEX is still closed. Chances are that it will hit 7 later this year and possibly go to 5. Which means you will have to do better than 4x - 6x gains in less than 3 years. Meanwhile, EU is going to delink from Russia as fast as they can, which is not very fast, but as far as I am concerned it is a done deal. This means that in 3 - 5 years Russia will be structurally and strategically less important in the financial markets than they were last November. And yet you expect them to do better than 3x gains in 3 years and get back on that podium? If you really think that way, put half of your retirement money into RSX. But that's is not what I would recommend to my family. And I'm a fairly big risk on type of investor. I might consider buying RSX as a trade on its way to a 90% crash. But that is unlikely in the near future.