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To: Goose94 who wrote (121187)3/3/2022 12:15:01 PM
From: Goose94Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 203418
 
Crude Oil: WTI Ongoing Energy Sector Bull Trends Define New S-T Risk Levels

APR CRUDE OIL The only change in our technical assessment as a result of yesterday and overnight’s continued uptrend is the trailing of our short-term risk parameter to the most recent smaller-degree corrective low at 105.18 detailed in the 240-min chart below. A failure below 105.18 is minimally required to confirm a bearish divergence in short-term momentum that would only allow us to conclude the end of the past week’s portion of the secular bull market. Per such, this 105.18 level is considered our new short-term risk parameter from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy and exposure.




On a broader scale shown in the daily log close-only chart below, a failure below 18-Feb’s 90.52 corrective low close remains minimally required to break the uptrend from even 02-Devc’s 65.71 low, let alone threaten the secular bull trend from Apr’20’s 6.50 low. As discussed in recent updates, we believe this market will produce price action, perhaps increasingly volatile, that shows a slower rate of ascent in the weeks and days leading up to the inevitable top and identify a tighter, more practical long-term bull risk parameter than 90.52. But as the market is still arguably ACCELERATING higher, such a high and topping conditions are not even close to being a threat at this time.

These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 105.18 required for shorter-term traders to move to the sidelines and even longer-term commercial players to pare exposure to more conservative levels. In lieu of such weakness, the trend remains up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration.




RJO Market Insights