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To: Darth Trader who wrote (34832)	2/8/1998 7:38:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 58727

Darth, If you are referring to what I have said in the past, about using TA when approaching new highs - let me explain further. That is correct, that TA is useless to determine how high something will go since it is based on historical data. Since new highs have no history TA is basicly useless to accurately predict specific price targets in new high territory. I have attempted by transposing past parobolic movements and it really has no foundation and with little accuracy - its really a guess. Now the other area where TA is useless is to determine if and the extent of a technical breakout. Please do not confuse a technical breakout with a price breakout. In my system they are 2 totally differnt things. A technical breakout can occur when the price is 90% below the highs, and a price breakout does not have to be a technical breakout. Per my system, a technical breakout or breakdown is when the technicals are at the extremes (CLASS 1 SELL, CLASS 1 BUY) and the price continues to move in the same direction and does not reverse. Right now my short-term technicals are not at the extremes, but very close to them, so technically per my system they have not yet broken out. The DOW is now a CLASS 2 SELL, but it can still move up, if you recall my definition of a CLASS 2. Surprisingly, the day the DOW came down a whopping 30 points actually dropped the technicals alot more than what I thought it would. It put the technicals just at the overbought line. From the overbought line, the DOW can still move 200 points higher, and it did almost half of that on Friday and only brought my technicals to only CLASS 2 status, not even CLASS 1. So, therefore the technicals are still in play. Also with my system, since it is more based on time for determining the signal, hypothetically the buy-in day could still be up huge. As for the effects of Clinton, etc, I will leave that to those who are better than I at interpreting their effects. Personally, I do not feel the negatives are totally over with, but thats my opinion and fortunately I have a technical system to rely on rather than work with the subjective which I have stated in the past that I really do not do well. Hope I explained it. Seeya

To: Darth Trader who wrote (34832)	2/8/1998 10:43:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 58727

Darth, re The market rallied to new highs the last time we tossed missiles at Iraq. True, but keep in mind that the market plunged when Saddam invaded Kuwait. When the US commenced hostilities, I believe the market rallied because people were fairly confident not only of what the result would be, but that a) the result would be swift, and b) it would put Saddam back in his box for awhile, and peace would once again sort of reign in the gulf. This time, it would be the US initiating hostilities and probably disrupting the flow of oil etc., and some like Boris Yeltsin have hinted darkly that a unilateral move by the US may draw other countries into the fray on the side of Iraq. I really don't like to predict what the market will do, but I fail to see how a US attack on Iraq of "severe" (per Madeline Albright) proportions would stimulate the market to go higher. The objective of an attack (reduce Saddam's war-making capabilities) isn't really something that directly affects the market, at least I can't see any connection. I can see a short dip in the market until operations are fully underway, and oil spiking higher, but I see no impetus for an attack to stimulate the market higher. BWDIK. DK