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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1745)	2/8/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Alan Gallaspy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2754

Donald: Do you see a similar situation as in Nov 1996? There had been several downgrades and a big slide in price, and then we got a bit of a bounce and an optimistic conference call from AMAT. See Cary Salsberg's post #1000 and 1001 on the Semi-Equip Buy when there is BLOOD in the streets thread. Message 473199 Actually, if you have a couple of hours on a rainy day and do not have to worry about mudslides, the first 1000 post on that thread are instructive. When you look at the long term picture of an environment where it costs over $1 billion to build and equip a fab and where companies that fail to do so are stuck with uncompetitive parts that cannot be sold at any price, much less a profit, one could argue that there is seldom a bad time to buy these companies. As most of us know from painful experience, that argument is false. This sector gyrates wildly from one extreme to another based on whether the future is bright or has "limited visibility". I would think that we have been in one of those limited visibility periods for nearly 6 months now, and that by the time the future is bright again, it is mostly too late for us. We need to look for a time when the sector has been widely downgraded and a lot of the investing community hates the sector. We have already seen lots of downgrades, I believe most recently from Merrill-Lynch. It may well be that the best sign of life will indeed be a positive conference call from AMAT. They of all people should have a good idea of where the industry is going. Now, is that call scheduled for Tuesday next week? Regards, Al