To: rimshot who wrote (436 ) 7/25/2022 2:40:32 AM From: rimshot 1 RecommendationRecommended By ajtj99
Respond to of 1309 study by Ryan Detrick, CMT shared in July 24 evening tweet - pbs.twimg.com/media/FYew853WYAA9fbY?format=png&name=medium it takes about 19 months to recover from a bear market (or near bear). Yet, going back to 1982, if the bear doesn't go down more than 30%, we've seen consistently quick recoveries: 3 months '82 4 months '90 3 months '98 4 months '11 4 months '18 5 months '20 =================================================== the MACD's Scott selected which are shown on the daily $SPX chart shown below have curled up in recent days , though the actual historical failure rate of such early " bottoming clues " provides evidence the initial price & MACD upward movement requires further significant time duration before reliable confirmation of probable long-term trend change is reliable --- Message #436 from rimshot at 3/6/2022 6:02:46 PM when you have time, check out for each major US index the daily 55,144,1 MACD which Scott used for many years to confirm the probable Staying Power by price action's direction change for the purpose of investor-style trading decisions ... not exiting too early or too late is the objective ... if using investor-style decision making instead of "active" trading * the absolute distance between the 55-day EMA and the 144-day EMA is represented by the 55,144,1 MACD ... and for the $SPX price action, this declining MACD is quickly approaching its zero line, as of March 4, 2022 stockcharts.com Scott complimented his analysis with the slower 89,233,1 MACD , representing the absolute distance between the 89-day EMA and the 233-day EMA his 5,21,1 MACD was designed by Scott primarily for divergence spotting, whether positive or negative ( fyi - Scott is deceased )