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To: Richnorth who wrote (8614)2/8/1998 7:22:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson  Respond to of 14627
 
Richnorth; I read it and sent him an e-mail about it. However my system crashed, and I lost all that historical stuff. I might get it back??

However he might well underestimate the speed of electronic cameras to increase their resolution and cut their prices.

Currently a 35 MM 25 ASA negative is around 10 million pixels, and that is the 35MM movie standard. 70MM, 25ASA has 40Million pixels.Electronic cameras as good as 35MM are $25,000+, and 70MM, $50,000 plus.
However 200 ASA film has around 2.5 million pixels and those are around $800-1000 and falling at a high speed.
Whey they reach $200-300 they will impact film cameras, especially as the local storage options to hold images will increase and there is no cost to take pictures, only to print them. I suspect you will find that the camera store will get into the print business on paper and e-mail in a big way(some are doing it now) Some will get home printers and use their own computers, some will use the small shops.(all you need is a computer, glossy paper and a printer to do it)
The film business as we know it is doomed, however it is still large and will take years to fully die away and a declining business can be profitable as well as a growing one, managed correctly.
Let us say that it will decline by 75% over the next 10 years. The x-ray film market will also decline the same way as the use of scanner arrays and printers to make X-ray images, and the use of monitors to pre-screen the images will decimate this business over the next 10 years. So let us say that will also decline by 75%.
The last major industrial use is electrical contacts for switches and relays. That business will stay stable or deline by a few % annually as electronic relays pick away at the market.
Jewellery will grow with the economy and I see it as the only one to increase over time. So this silver jump might well be only for a few months??
Of course who am I todisagree with Hathaway.

Bill