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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (185014)3/8/2022 6:12:52 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217825
 
(2) I remain agnostic, but it might just be that weaponising economies, literally, for war war, shall likely prove a very foolish idea with much capability / capacity for TwoAPuc (The Worst of All Possible Unintended Consequences) and the people who led part of the planet on the absolutely botched pandemic response choreographies have just sent their respective economies to face down Team Russia (!?). Continuing Bloomberg notes

Elsewhere in oil
We have talked a few times recently about the fact that big international oil companies have joint ventures in Russia and decided pretty hastily to exit them. Here is a Wall Street Journal story about “ How Oil Giants’ Bets on Russia, Years in the Making, Crumbled in Days.” As we have discussed, it is one thing to say “we are exiting our Russia ventures” and another thing to figure out how to actually do that. You can’t exactly sell the shares of these joint ventures on the open market, and abandoning them essentially means selling them to Russian companies for free. Conceptually the right approach is something like:

Promise to get rid of them.Cross them off the list of “assets we own” and move them to a list of “assets we don’t want to own,*” with a little footnote saying “*but still technically own.”Wait a while until things are more normal, or until you find an acceptable buyer.Eventually sell them for some amount of money.Do something with the money.Obviously that is a very schematic description. Each part is complicated but here let’s focus on Step 2, crossing them off one list and putting them on another list. That is a pretty metaphysical step; here’s the Journal:

Lawyers, accountants and outside advisers are working to determine how the oil companies can restructure their Russian holdings. They are exploring complex options for ring fencing them from ongoing operations—transferring the assets to separate corporate entities—while winding them down and trying to preserve as much value as possible, some of the people close to the companies said. Options include escrow accounts with shareholders named as beneficiaries and special-purpose entities walled off from continuing businesses.

Asset sales would be challenging, some of the people close to the companies said. One primary goal is to avoid ceding direct control to a Russian counterpart or otherwise inadvertently benefiting Russia, they said.

“Escrow accounts with shareholders named as beneficiaries”? Like, before the restructuring, BP Plc (say) would own the asset, and any value from the asset would belong to BP’s shareholders. After the restructuring, some entity set up by BP would own the asset, and any value from the asset would belong to BP’s shareholders. But in some legal or perhaps only metaphysical sense BP would no longer own the asset, so it could say that it was getting out of Russian oil ventures, which is the point here.

This is all a bit uncharted and you have some options on what you want to accomplish with this structure. Like:

What does “shareholders” mean? Most simply, the escrow account would be for whoever owns the company’s shares at any particular time; if the company sells the asset in 2023 and realizes some proceeds, it will pay out those proceeds to its shareholders in 2023. But you could imagine, as it were, distributing the claims to current shareholders, so that if you owned the company’s stock in March 2022 and the asset pays out in 2023, you get a share of the proceeds even if you have sold your stock. (The theory being that, since you owned the stock at the time the company abandoned the asset at zero, you were the one hurt by that and you should get the money.)If you’re doing that you could make the escrow claims … tradable? Like, issue a tracking stock on your abandoned Russian JV assets? That seems distasteful and yet somehow correct. If you want to get rid of your JV assets, can’t sell them, and don’t want to abandon them to your Russian partners, one move is to effectively spin them off to your shareholders. Then you don’t own them anymore, but you have maximized shareholder value. And then if your shareholders don’t want to own Russian JV assets they can sell them, in indirect tradable-escrow-claim form to someone who does. (Who is that?) Why shareholders? When Shell Plc bought Russian oil after the invasion of Ukraine, it saidthat it “will commit profits from the limited amount of Russian oil we have to purchase to a dedicated fund” that will be used “to alleviate the terrible consequences that this war is having on the people of Ukraine.” (It has since decided to stop buying Russian oil.) I suppose one could do the same thing with Russian JVs: Put them in a special-purpose entity and escrow any proceeds to help Ukraine? In some loose sense the JV assets belong to the shareholders now, so it’s weird for the company to donate them, but that is loosely true of Shell’s oil trading profits too and that didn’t stop it from donating them. Still elsewhere in oil:

“Biden Says U.S. Will Ban Russian Fuels to Pressure Putin.”

“China Considers Buying Stakes in Russian Energy, Commodity Firms.”

“The Future Turns Dark for Russia’s Oil Industry.”

“Russian tankers at sea despite ‘big unknown’ over who will buy oil.”

Maduro hails ‘cordial’ talks with US as west seeks new oil supplies.”



To: TobagoJack who wrote (185014)3/8/2022 6:42:28 PM
From: sense1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Lee Lichterman III

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217825
 
No quibbles... as far as it goes... it just doesn't go far enough...

Yes, cancelling trades is bad... not because it places stresses on producers or traders... but, because it imposes a forced re-prioritization on our values... and does that inequitably.

Why should Big Shot get a free pass... when some mom and pop investors who did the same exact thing, betting the same way... only on a vastly smaller scale that does NOT have systemic market impacts... are allowed to get wiped out ? The article totally ignores the moral hazard argument... the primacy in the need for the integrity of the values of the markets being upheld... and surrender to that corruption in favoring the expediency of allowing "some" to circumvent the forces of reality... when others cannot.

That it is inherently and essentially unfair... isn't the worst of it ?

If producers are a "knowing" part of that market and agree to be participants in the market... they must be forced to agree to protect that market... When instead of fostering optimal market function... they instead are seen to be inflicting monumental scale errors in markets... they must be allowed to fail... so that their failure enables the CORRECTION it should... by eliminating the source of error. That is the primary purpose applied by the market's FUNCTION...

Otherwise, in that instance, the corruption fails the market... the market does not function... and AS the failure imposes a lack of market function... error will not be corrected... which is a function that OTHERWISE will occur. Markets being left to function... requires allowing them imposing the fact of the failure... only thus ensuring that in future that nickel mine (which will not cease to exist, as the article pretends, if its proprietor's business is forced to fail) will INSTEAD of being run by a proven failure whose failure imposed systemic risks on everyone... and forced them to be recognized... will INSTEAD... be run by new management who, after the failure is forced out... will run the show INSTEAD of the guy who just failed. That is the PRIMARY FUNCTION of the market... to weed out failure... while the primary function of corruption... is to impose and protect it.

So, realizing that... the problem is not the failure at one producer... but the failure of the market to enforce market discipline...

And that means... "the market is broken"... because someone with the power to control it... broke it...

And that someone... in this case... is BOTH... the Chinese government... and the banks who operate the market... both of whom are FAILING... in not upholding the BASIC requirements of markets...

That banks and governments lack integrity... and are corrupt... while passing off their willful tolerance and imposition of corruption as "practical" and "expedient" is not new... and it is not news...

But, it is also true... that it is unacceptable... to accept the products of THEIR corruption and failure... being imposed on us.... through their corruption of the market function... to protect themselves from the reality that they ARE FAILURES...

I wonder how "Let's Go Brandon"... translates into free market language with Chinese characteristics...






To: TobagoJack who wrote (185014)3/8/2022 6:59:49 PM
From: sense1 Recommendation

Recommended By
dvdw©

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217825
 
With that rant out of the way...

There's also a practical element or two in market functions that the article ignored... when they'd be useful for investors to recognize...

An obvious one in nickel... as the suspension of trading imposes a forced reconsideration of the value of miners... when the miners as a group have failed to enforce rational market discipline... leading to the failure of their market.. And, when there are not functional transparent markets able to facilitate trades in the commodity... the value of those businesses is altered....

That might not be a bad thing... when it is the corruption of the market itself that is forcibly "corrected" by the market ceasing to exist... allowing producers to make deals with direct dealings... demanding higher prices to assure that stability that used to result from certainty in the market function...

A less obvious one (or two), perhaps... in recognizing that companies hedging their production leads to variations in their performance... some of which are variable depending on the skill of the company's effort in trading... Screwing it up bad enough to take down the market... comes in at the low end of expectations. But, barring that... the company's own performance is still held at risk of reflecting that variable...

Related to that... is understanding that element exists... with multiple purposes... not all of which are about maximizing financial gain... rather than "smoothing out variations" that might otherwise disrupt the flow of operations... that are best conducted with a steady hand... and without whipsaws in funding... or job risk.

A successful hedging operation... will minimize "disruption" of the business... as much or more than "disruption" of share prices... So, commitment to proper market function... enables better business management in each company... and smoother economic function of the entire economy... while breaking market function... imposes morons throwing wrenches in the gears on everyone...

But, at the company level... also useful to investors to know what the company does in managing its market risks... how well they do it a critical element in valuation... but, also, a direct factor in TIMING... because, if you know how a company has hedged its future production... and know when those hedges expire... and know what the market has done to prices in the meanwhile... ? Then,. you can also predict movements in stocks based on "change" occurring in prices earned... And, when prices have changed a lot... that can make a big impact...